UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall is set to get underway this Saturday at The O2 Arena in London, England. This card will be the second straight week that we get a full day of fighting as the first fight is slated to kick off at 11 a.m. ET.
We should be in store for an immensely entertaining day of fights as there is a lot of knockout power on this card, headlined by a heavyweight matchup between the number four contender Curtis Blaydes and number six contender Tom Aspinall. Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this card.
These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll. Follow me on Twitter to get all of my plays on days without full write-ups.
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Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Mandy Bohm to Win via KO/TKO/DQ (+1200)
In the second fight of the prelims, we have a women’s flyweight bout between Mandy Bohm and Victoria Leonardo. I have this fight going either way, but if Bohm is to win, then It is a very good chance that she does so via KO.
Bohm has serious knockout power that has not been showcased yet in the UFC as she is 0-1 since switching over to this promotion with her loss via decision to Ariane Lipski. Prior to joining the UFC, Bohm spent the majority of her early career in the German MMA Championship.
In that promotion, Bohm went 5-0 with two knockouts. Facing Leonardo, this is a great matchup to bet on Bohm to showcase that power as she will absolutely want to keep the fight on its feet.
Compared to Leonardo, Bohm boasts a two-inch height and seven-inch reach advantage. Combined with her power, this disparity will force Leonardo to try to bring this fight to the mat.
If that is indeed the case, then I think this matchup will favor Bohm as she boasts a 100% takedown defense. In comparison, Leonardo’s takedown accuracy is a mere 27%.
Leonardo’s chin is definitely a cause for concern for her corner as each of her two losses in the UFC were via KO. Her only win in this promotion was in Dana White’s Contender Series, and prior to that, she had lost two of her last three fights in the Invicta FC promotion with one of those losses coming via knockout.
This scrap will be close, but if Bohm is successful in keeping It standing, then her reach could cause serious problems for Leonardo.
Claudio Silva ML (+210)
While calling this a longshot is a stretch, It is still a nice payout at plus money and possesses the next longest odds on my card. This welterweight bout is the first fight on the entire card as Claudio Silva will face off against Nicolas Dalby.
If you want to be a little riskier, then you could take Silva to win via submission or via decision as I believe his path to victory will be with his grappling. That being said, I am just sticking with the moneyline as I am not confident in whether he will actively go for sub attempts or rather just rack up points by controlling position on the mat and lasting to the final bell.
Additionally, Dalby has never been finished inside the distance since joining the UFC. However, especially in a fight that will most likely spend a good amount of time on the mat, a submission is always possible.
Silva continues to be undervalued as he is 3-1 as an underdog while Dalby is just 1-2-1 as a favorite. I believe we are getting an inflated number on Silva due to the fact that he has lost each of his last two fights, however, his resume is still much more impressive than Dalby’s.
Prior to taking his three-year hiatus from the sport as he dealt with nagging injuries, Silva was attempting to make a run in this division as he defeated Leon Edwards in his welterweight debut. A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Ricardo Vieira, Silva’s grappling could be too much for Dalby.
We have seen this in all of Dalby’s losses, as grappling was the main reason he lost to Tim Means, Jesse Ronson, Peter Sobotta, and Zak Cummings. While that Ronson loss got overturned due to his opponent testing positive for PEDs, It does not eliminate the fact that Dalby tapped in round one.
I believe Silva’s corner is stronger in this matchup, and along with the fact that Dalby struggles against grapplers, this price looks too long to pass up. For what It is worth (probably not a whole lot), Silva is 3-0 when fighting in England.
Other UFC plays from this card:
- Volkan Oezdemir to Win Inside the Distance (+120)
- Nikita Krylov to Win Inside the Distance (+115)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.