Following a thrilling UFC 327 card in Miami, Florida last weekend, the promotion heads to the Great White North for what should be a fun Fight Night card in Winnipeg, Manitoba. (#11) Gilbert Burns squares off against Ontario-born Mike Malott in the main event, and Malott makes up one of nine Canadians on the card.
I've got you covered from a sports betting angle Saturday night. Let's dive into my top three UFC Fight Night bets for this weekend's card in Winnipeg.
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UFC Fight Night Burns vs. Malott Picks & Bets (Winnipeg)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Gilbert Burns (+210) vs. Mike Malott (-258)
Let's pick it up in the main event and work our way backwards. (#11) Gilbert Burns finds himself as a sizable +210 moneyline underdog in this Welterweight bout. Mike Malott comes back at -258 to get his hand raised. It's worth noting that this fight opened at Malott -590, so we've seen quite a bit of action come in on his opponent, knocking this price down as we approach the weekend.
I can agree with some of the early movement on Gilbert Burns in this spot. I guess, if I was able to snag a +390 payout on the crafty, battle-tested veteran, then I could make a case that he can prevail Saturday night. However, we're way past the point of no return, and it's time to buy back and ride with the upward-trending Mike Malott. Burns has lost his last four fights, while Malott is enjoying a 9-1 professional MMA run.
As for how to bet on this one, I'm locking in Malott to win by either submission or decision. Across his 13-2-1 career, the Canadian-born brawler has six submissions and two decision wins. I see this fight going to the canvas, with both fighters possessing Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belts and averaging north of 1.85 takedowns per 15 minutes. If this is the case, we'll either be burning the 25-minute clock and pushing towards a decision, or we should see Malott have a few quality looks at a submission.
The bottom line is that Burns clearly isn't in great form. He has had tough competition recently, but Malott is no slouch either. He's on fire, he's younger, and he’ll have his home country behind him on Saturday night. Let's take a shot on this +255 double chance wager.
Pick: Double Chance: Mike Malott to Win by Submission or Decision (+255)
Kyler Phillips (+120) vs. Charles Jourdain (-142)
This co-main event in the Bantamweight division should be a banger between Kyler Phillips and Charles Jourdain. Phillips is a slim +120 underdog to bounce back and snap his two-fight slide. Quebec native Charles Jourdain is priced at -142 to secure his third consecutive victory in the UFC octagon.
I agree that Charles Jourdain should be favored in this contest, and I still believe this price of -142 is cheap enough to get involved. At -142, the 30-year-old has an implied probability of 58.9% to win.
As for how this fight plays out, I think Jourdain has a clear edge on the feet. He's averaging 5.48 significant strikes per minute and landing them at a solid 49% clip. What I like most in this matchup are how his defensive metrics stack up. "Air" Jourdain's opponents are only landing 44% of their strikes, and he'll be taking on Kyler Phillips, who has an underwhelming 42% significant strike success rate. Jourdain should be able to avoid getting touched up if this fight stays vertical.
We could see a mix of both boxing and wrestling in this fight, but if Jourdain is able to completely stifle Phillips' wrestling, then he should cruise to a win. Also, Jourdain is a guillotine master, seeing four of his last five victories come by guillotine. It's well within the realm of possibilities that he lands another one against the wrestling-reliant Phillips. However this one plays out, I like for Jourdain to get his hand raised.
Pick: Charles Jourdain Moneyline (-142)
Thiago Moises (+130) vs. Gauge Young (-155)
The main card gets underway with a Lightweight showdown between Thiago Moises and Gauge Young. The latter is a -155 moneyline favorite to emerge victorious on Saturday night, while the Brazilian-born Moises is currently sitting at +130. This will be Moises' first fight since getting knocked out by Jared Gordon last May.
I can't pass up on this price, I'm jumping on Thiago Moises as an underdog in this one. The Fighting Nerds-trained Moises is one of the most hardened fighters in the promotion, having shared the cage with Benoit Saint Denis (L: KO), Islam Makhachev (L: SUB), King Green (W: DEC), Michael Johnson (W: SUB), and Beneil Dariush (L: DEC). He's still near his prime as well, having just turned 31 years old last month.
I really think the veteran edge will show up in this fight. Gauge Young is just 1-2 in his UFC career, having been out-struck in both defeats. He's absorbing an inflated 5.82 significant strikes per minute and opponents are landing 52% of their strike attempts. Moises likely won't climb the Lightweight ranks and fight for a title one day, but he has plenty of skill to succeed in a gatekeeper role here. I'll take a +130 flier on Moises to beat Young.
Pick: Thiago Moises Moneyline (+130)
