Before UFC 259: Błachowicz vs. Adesanya kicks off a stacked March for the UFC, this weekend’s UFC Fight Night: Ciryl Gane vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is quietly one of the better cards so far this year.
In the main event, Ciryl Gane will fight in his first main event for the UFC, after a torrid start that puts him at 4-0 and the #7 contender in the heavyweight division. His opponent, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, expects to have something to say about the young phenom, however.
Let’s take a closer look and see where we can find the edge.
Betting Profile: Ciryl Gane (7-0-0)
Last Five Fights
Since making his debut in a professional fight just three short years ago, Gane has taken the game by storm, winning seven straight fights. The Muay Thai and Kickboxing expert has as many submissions as he does knockouts, with just one fight thus far going the distance.
His 1.95 Strikes Absorbed per Min (SApM) rank him amongst the elite in the heavyweight division, as well as a defense rate of 73%. With a TKO win over Junior dos Santos in December officially putting him on the map, expect a decisive win here to propel him to superstardom
Betting Profile: Jairzinho Rozenstruik (11-1-0)
Last Five Fights
With only one loss to his name (a brutal first-round knockout to Francis Ngannou in May), Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik likely comes into this one feeling massively disrespected. As we saw last weekend with Derrick Lewis, these heavyweights all have the ability to end a fight on a second’s notice, despite the odds.
While he does nothing particularly stellar, averaging just 4.04 Strikes Landed per Min and SApM of 3.1, Rozenstruik’s biggest advantage lies in his experience. Outside of the Ngannou loss, he has KO wins over the likes of Alistair Overeem and Andrei Arlovski.
Though the value is mostly gone, I have to go with Gane in this spot as he continues his rise for what I believe will be an eventual title shot. With a size advantage to go along with better fighting fundamentals, I’d play Cane at anything less than -300.
Top Prop Bet
More often than not, heavyweight bouts between guys of this stature aren’t making it out of the second round. By the time the third comes around, one’s either too banged up or too gassed to be the same fighter they were in the first.
I expect a similar outcome here.
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