We have another thrilling UFC card on the horizon this weekend, and all roads lead to a middleweight main event between Roman Dolidze (No. 9) and Anthony Hernandez (No. 10). Below, I'll dive into this bout, as well as two other main card contests, from a sports betting perspective. Here are my top UFC Fight Night wagers for this weekend.
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UFC Fight Night Picks & Predictions: Dolidze vs. Hernandez (2025)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Roman Dolidze (+275) vs. Anthony Hernandez (-345)
This main event at 185 pounds should be a fun one, as Anthony Hernandez (14-2-0, 1 No Contest) looks to build on his current seven-fight winning streak. He's a sizable -345 Moneyline favorite, while ninth-ranked Roman Dolidze (15-3-0) comes back at +275 to get his hand raised.
Hernandez has been dominant over the last four years, as he continues to climb the middleweight rankings. During his current seven-fight winning streak, he has five finishes (3 SUB, 2 KO) and three Performance of the Night bonuses. The 31-year-old now has 14 victories in his professional career, and 11 of those have come via stoppage (8 SUB, 3 KO).
That's a trend that I think will continue on Saturday night. The big issue with Dolidze is his takedown defense. He's at 33% currently. This opens the door for Hernandez, who's averaging an insane 6.27 takedowns per 15 minutes, to take this fight to the canvas. Whether it comes by a ground-and-pound knockout or another submission, I like Hernandez's chances to secure the finish.
Bet: Anthony Hernandez to Win by Finish (+110)
Steve Erceg (-575) vs. Ode’ Osbourne (+425)
The co-main event should be a banger as well, with Steve Erceg (12-4-0) stepping into the cage to take on Ode' Osbourne (13-8-0, 1 No Contest). Erceg's looking to snap a three-fight slide, and he's a colossal -575 Moneyline favorite to do so.
Erceg's time in the UFC hasn't been too fruitful. He got a title shot back in 2024 against Alexandre Pantoja, and the champion dismissed him with relative ease over five rounds (U-DEC). "Astroboy" went on to drop two more fights to Kai Kara-France (KO/TKO - Punch) and Brandon Moreno (U-DEC). Essentially, he has gotten stonewalled trying to climb into the top five of this stacked 125-pound division.
However, now that Erceg will take on a lesser opponent in Osbourne, I think he'll get back on track with a dominant victory. Osbourne is a modest 13-8 in his career, and he has suffered four submission losses. Erceg is a submission artist with six tapout wins on his resume. With Osbourne's takedown defense rate sitting at a mediocre 65%, I expect Erceg to find success in the grappling department and lock in a submission. I'll take a shot on the +150 payout that comes with “Astroboy” to win by submission.
Bet: Steve Erceg to Win by Submission (+150)
Andre Fili (+200) vs. Christian Rodriguez (-245)
This Featherweight showdown between Andre Fili (24-12-0, 1 No Contest) and Christian Rodriguez (12-3-0) should be interesting, as each brawler looks to take a step forward and enter the top 15 rankings. "CeeRod" is a -245 Moneyline favorite, while the veteran Fili sits as a +200 underdog.
Rodriguez should be a favorite in this fight, but I think this one has gone too far in favor of the 27-year-old. He's 12-3-0 in his professional career, but of his six UFC victories, none of his opponents have registered more than two UFC fights. Rodriguez is essentially beating up on rookies. That will not be the case this weekend, as Rodriguez takes on an experienced scrapper in Andre "Touchy" Fili.
Fili has fought some of the best in the business at 145 pounds, including dropping battles with Bryce Mitchell (U-DEC), Nathaniel Wood (U-DEC) and Dan Ige (KO/TKO - Punch). Fili is a well-rounded fighter, averaging 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes and dishing out 3.84 significant strikes per minute. He has the height advantage (5-foot-11 versus 5-foot-7) and reach advantage (74 inches versus 71 inches). As long as his chin holds up and he comes in with a solid game plan, he should be competitive in this bout. Let's take an underdog flier on Fili.
Bet: Andre Fili Moneyline (+200)
