Fall is easily the best season of the year for sports, as we have football returning, high-leverage baseball, and marquee fights to close out the calendar year. This weekend, the UFC packs its bags and heads to Paris, France for a massive main event in the Middleweight division between (#2) Nassourdine Imavov and (#7) Caio Borralho. Below, I'll dive into the main event, as well as two additional main card bouts, from a sports betting perspective and let you know where I'm laying my money on the canvas.
Just a reminder, since we are abroad in Europe this main card gets underway at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
UFC Fight Night Imavov vs. Borralho Picks & Bets (2025)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Middleweight: Nassourdine Imavov (+110) vs. Caio Borralho (-130)
Let's start at the top of the card and work our way down. I'd say that's appropriate considering we have a whale of a tilt up top between (#2) Nassourdine Imavov and (#7) Caio Borralho. The seventh-ranked Brazilian is a slim favorite, while the hometown Frenchman comes back as a small +110 underdog.
I'd venture to say that the wrong fighter is favored in this contest, so I'll gladly ride with Nassourdine Imavov to secure the win in his home country at plus-money odds. This will also be Caio Borralho's first fight since August 2024, so the year-long layoff doesn't do him any favors, in my opinion. It's worth noting that the Brazilian just served as a backup fighter for UFC 319 less than a month ago as well, so he's had two weight cuts in less than 30 days.
Many of the intangibles favor Imavov, but I also believe that he has the skill set to prevail when the cage closes. For me, the big question is whether or not Imavov's defensive grappling will hold up. He has only conceded two takedowns in his last five fights and boasts a takedown defense rate of 78%. I believe he'll manage to keep this fight upright, and that's where "The Sniper" should have the edge. Give me Imavov to pull off the upset.
Pick: Nassourdine Imavov Moneyline (+110)
Lightweight: Benoit Saint Denis (+150) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (-180)
You know you're in for a banger when (#13) Benoit Saint Denis' name shows up on a UFC card. The former French military man will look to put on a show in front of his fellow countrymen, but he finds himself as a moderate underdog against (#15) Mauricio Ruffy.
I think this fight is priced fairly, and I won't be surprised if we see Mauricio Ruffy move out to around a -200 moneyline favorite by Saturday. I mentioned above that Imavov's nickname is "The Sniper," but he may have to loan out that moniker to Ruffy considering this guy is 12-1 with 11 knockouts in his professional career. He's rattled off seven consecutive victories, six of which have come by knockout (one DEC).
Now, Benoit Saint Denis is an absolute savage and you can tell that he has heart, but that can only get you so far. He's just not as refined of a fighter as some of the top-tier guys in the division, and we're starting to see him get touched up pretty good as he attempts to climb the rankings. In fact, he has a very low strike defense rate of just 41%, meaning 59% of the opposition's significant strikes are landing! That's not a good metric to have on your resume when you're standing across from a bonafide knockout artist like Ruffy. It may take a couple of rounds since Saint Denis is stubborn, but I expect Ruffy to land clean at some point and secure the knockout win.
Pick: Mauricio Ruffy To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+100)
Featherweight: Patricio Pitbull (+185) vs. Losene Keita (-225)
The main card opens up with an intriguing clash at 145 lbs. between (#11) Patricio Pitbull and the debuting Losene Keita. Pitbull just picked up a decision victory over Dan Ige in July, so he'll be making the walk for the second time in under two months. He'll have a tall task, against Keita, who boasts a professional record of 16-1-0, which the odds reflect.
I'm confident that Losene Keita will do enough to secure the victory on Saturday afternoon. At -225, I'll have him in a couple of moneyline parlays to knock off some of the juice. I do think that the moneyline is the safest way to play the Guinean, since I can see him winning this bout by either decision or knockout.
With that being said, no one makes a career in this business by dishing out -225 picks. I'll also be sprinkling on Keita to beat Patricio Pitbull by decision at +110. The Brazilian is a 38-year-old veteran in the fight game, and he has only been knocked out twice across his 37-8-0 career. He knows how to protect himself from the knockout blows, as he boasts a respectable 57% strike defense rate.
My big gripe with Pitbull thus far in the UFC is his lack of volume. He's only averaging 2.68 significant strikes per minute. He'll do enough to survive the 15 minutes, but his inactivity in the striking department will ultimately lead to Keita starting his UFC career off with a victory. I'll take Keita by points.
Pick: Losene Keita By Decision (+110)
