UFC Vegas 78 gets underway this Saturday at the UFC Apex facility. While this card is certainly not the most loaded of affairs, there are still a couple of great betting angles to attack.
Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this event.
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UFC Vegas 78: Best Longshot Bets
Here are our top longshot bets for UFC Vegas 78.
Josh Fremd vs Jamie Pickett
To kick off the main card at UFC Vegas 78, there is a catchweight bout between Josh Fremd and Jamie Pickett. Originally scheduled as a middleweight contest, Fremd came in three pounds heavy but the fight will commence regardless.
That is an advantage for Fremd, who was already priced as a heavy favorite. Pickett is coming off three straight losses, all of which were finishes inside the first two rounds.
Two of those three losses came via submission, with Kyle Daukaus and Bo Nickal both effortlessly taking down Pickett and earning first-round submission victories. This will also be the likely game plan for Fremd, who will have the disadvantage in the reach department but is a more comfortable grappler anyways.
We saw his impressive jiu-jitsu on display in his latest victory over Sedriques Dumas, earning two takedowns and securing a guillotine choke in the second round. Pickett will come in hot looking for the knockout, but if this fight goes to the mat, then I doubt he survives until the final bell.
The Pick: Josh Fremd via Submission (+250 via BetMGM)
Khalil Rountree Jr. vs Chris Daukaus
Later on the main card, there is a light heavyweight bout between the No. 13 contender Khalil Rountree Jr. and No. 14 heavyweight contender Chris Daukaus. After dropping each of his past three fights in the heavyweight division, Daukaus is moving down to 205-pounds, and he looks relatively good in the big weight cut.
We should expect to see a completely rejuvenated Daukaus in the octagon, as he discussed this week how terrible his nutrition and diet were in heavyweight in an effort to be as big as possible. He is now eating clean and carries that heavyweight frame into the 205-pound division, and if his power carries over, then Rountree is going to have to eat some monster shots that he has not endured prior to Saturday.
If Daukaus comes in faster with that leaner frame, that combination of speed and power could mean a quick night for Rountree. Rountree is certainly capable of getting caught, evidenced by his knockout losses to Johnny Walker and Ion Cutelaba.
Meanwhile, Daukaus’ power is no secret, boasting 10 knockouts over his 12 professional MMA victories.
The Pick: Chris Daukaus via KO/TKO
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.