The UFC continues its two-week trip abroad, following up last weekend's Abu Dhabi event with a Fight Night card in Belgrade, Serbia. It's worth mentioning for those of us stateside that this weekend's main card gets underway at 1:00 p.m. ET.
All roads lead to a ranked Welterweight bout in the main event, where (#14) Uros Medic enters as a -380 moneyline favorite against (#15) Daniel Rodriguez. Below, I'll dive into that fight, as well as two others, from a sports betting angle. Here are my top bets in the cage for UFC Fight Night: Belgrade.
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UFC Fight Night Medic vs. Rodriguez Picks & Bets (Belgrade)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Uros Medic (-380) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+300)
While this main event between (#14) Uros Medic and (#15) Daniel Rodriguez is close in rank, the sports betting market doesn't see it that way. Serbian-born Medic is a massive -380 moneyline favorite to take care of Daniel Rodriguez (+300).
Uros Medic is a knockout artist, racking up 11 KOs across his 13-3 career. This is obviously priced in, as the 33-year-old Serbian is sitting at -275 to win via knockout.
He may very well put Daniel Rodriguez to sleep, but I'm going to hold my breath and make a bet saying that this fight will enter the second round. Even though Rodriguez is absorbing an elevated 5.40 significant strikes per minute, he has proven to be durable. The American has seen four consecutive fights go the distance, as well as seven of his last eight overall. He has a great chin, having only been knocked out once during his 20-5 MMA career. At -105, I think it's worth betting that this fight makes it through the first five minutes.
Bet: Fight to Start Round 2: Yes (-105)
Jan Blachowicz (+260) vs. Navajo Stirling (-325)
This co-main event between (#4) Jan Blachowicz and (#15) Navajo Stirling should be a banger. Stirling puts his perfect 10-0-0 record on the line Saturday, but it won't be an easy contest, as he's taking on a Light Heavyweight legend in Jan Blachowicz. Stirling is a sizable -325 favorite to maintain his perfect record.
I'd love to take an underdog flier on Jan Blachowicz Saturday, but unfortunately, I don't see a route to him winning. Blachowicz hasn't claimed victory in more than four years, and adding in that he's 43 years old doesn't really help bolster his resume heading into this one.
I will give credit to Blachowicz and mention that he has only been finished four times across his impressive 29-11-2 career. I expect him to survive the full 15 minutes, but lose a decision to Navajo Stirling. Stirling is younger, speedier, and he's dishing out an inflated 6.24 significant strikes per minute in the UFC. I think he pieces up the former champ and grinds out a decision win.
Bet: Navajo Stirling to Win By Decision (-105)
Aleksandar Rakic (-360) vs. Marcin Tybura (+285)
Aleksandar Rakic will make the move to Heavyweight this weekend, but the 34-year-old isn't coming up from the Light Heavyweight division in great form. He has lost four consecutive fights, yet the sports betting market still views him as nearly a 4-to-1 favorite against Marcin Tybura. Poland's Tybura comes back at +285 to pull off the upset.
I'm locked in on this fight to go the distance, and I like the +110 payout that comes with the prop bet. Aleksandar Rakic should win this fight, but I don't trust him to secure the finish. You have to go all the way back to 2019 to find his last finish, which was a knockout against Jimi Manuwa. Since that point, Rakic is just 2-5.
Add in that he'll be moving up to face a veteran brawler in Marcin Tybura, and I don't think a finish will come easy for Rakic. Two of Tybura's last three fights have gone the distance. He's decent defensively, as only 45% of his opponents' strike attempts are landing. Tybura also boasts a respectable 70% takedown defense rate, although that likely won't be in play here.
Ultimately, I don't think either of these guys are set up well to find a finish. It should be a crafty matchup between two experienced fighters that goes the full 15 minutes.
Bet: Fight to Go the Distance: Yes (+110)
