UFC Fight Night Odds & Picks: Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivac (2023)

It’s almost Saturday, and that mean another week of UFC action! We have you covered with our best bets of this week’s UFC Fight Night. You can find all of our picks here. And below is a closer look at Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivac.

UFC Fight Night Gane vs. Spivac Best Bets: Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivac

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Last week’s Fight Night card is easily one of my all-time favorites. The Korean Zombie went out on his shield and his retirement will be a top UFC moment for years. We had an incredible weekend betting-wise. Our ML parlay cashed and Max Holloway struck gold and hit our biggest prop bet of the year. Max by TKO/KO in R0und 3 paid +700! This week we have a clashing of styles in the main event and several other intriguing matchups. Let’s dive in!

Record

ML: 34-22-1 (+13.35 units)
Props: 12-21-1 (+7.70 units)
Parlays 3-18 (+1.63 units)
Overall +22.68 units

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.

We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.

Glossary

Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!

Ciryl Gane (-192) vs Sergey Spivac (+160)

Ciryl Gane

Dist Acc Off: 64.8%
Dist Att/Min: 9.40
Dist Def: 59%
KD%: .1% (1 KD out of 464 distances strikes)
Control % Off: 9.6%
Control % Def: 9.2%

Sergey Spivac

Dist Acc Off: 41.2%
Dist Att/Min: 12.11
Dist Def: 59%
KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 118 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 51.1%
Control % Def: 7.1%

This is a classic clash of styles, but as we look closer it is not as polarizing as you would think. Usually, when it is grappler vs. striker there will be huge discrepancies on both sides. However, both fighters have the same distance defense, and shockingly Spivac fights at a significantly higher pace. Gane is without a doubt a sniper, and his 64.8% distance accuracy shows that. Spivac is an incredible grappler and has an elite-level control % offense. I cannot get out of my head how lost Gane looked against Jon Jones and I’m not sure how that affected his psyche. Spivac has finished his last four fights inside of two rounds (one submission and three KOs/TKOs).

Bet: Sergey Spivac Moneyline (+160) and Spivac Round 1 finish (+550)

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!