The UFC is back at the Meta APEX a week after a great pay-per-view card. Melquizael Costa is taking another step up in competition in a main event spot against Arnold Allen. It is one of two ranked fights on the card, and the other is on the prelims in the women's bantamweight division. This card has the makings of an exciting card. It starts at 5 p.m. ET, with the main card beginning at 8 p.m. ET. Here are our favorite UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for Allen vs. Costa.
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UFC Fight Night Picks: Allen vs. Costa Bets (2026)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Timmy Cuamba (+124) vs. Bernardo Sopaj (-148)
Timmy Cuamba is 2-2 in the UFC after earning a contract on Dana White's Contender Series. He lost his first two UFC fights to Bolaji Oki and Lucas Almeida, but has turned it around since 2025. He beat Roberto Romero with a flying knee knockout and followed it up with a victory over ChangHo Lee in November.
Bernado Sopaj is 1-1 in the UFC since 2024. He lost to Vinicius Oliveira via flying knee knockout in 2024 and beat Ricky Turcios via unanimous decision in January 2025. He has not fought in over a year due to injury, which has kept him out of the gym for a short time. Sopaj missed time until the final quarter of 2025, but has had a full camp for this fight.
Cuamba has a five-inch reach advantage over Sopaj, but lands less significant strikes. He averages 2.77 significant strikes landed and absorbs 3.58 significant strikes per minute. He lands with 44% accuracy and defends 57% of the opponent's significant strikes. Sopaj lands 4.24 significant strikes and absorbs 4.88 significant strikes per minute.
Sopaj is a well-rounded fighter who averaged 2.53 takedowns per 15 minutes. Cuamba averages 1.31 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and defends 72% of takedowns. This fight should showcase MMA at its best, with both fighters mixing it up. I would expect Sopaj to wrestle a little more, especially if Cuamba can manage distance well with his reach advantage. I like Cuamba to win this matchup, using his range striking to set up explosive strikes inside.
Pick: Timmy Cuamba Moneyline (+124)
Arnold Allen (-130) vs. Melquizael Costa (+110)
Arnold Allen has had a rough go of it recently, but he has been fighting some of the best fighters on the planet. He lost to Jean Silve in January via unanimous decision, and was taken down four times. He beat Giga Chikadze in 2024, but lost to Movsar Evloev and Max Holloway leading into that victory.
Melquizael Costa is rising through the ranks in the featherweight division after getting off to a rough start in the UFC. He lost to Thiago Moises and Steve Garcia in 2023, but those losses are nothing to hang your head over. He is on a six-fight winning streak since then, including a knockout over Dan Ige his last time in the octagon in February.
Allen lands 3.47 significant strikes and absorbs 3.04 significant strikes per minute. Costa lands 4.38 significant strikes and absorbs 2.97 significant strikes per minute. The difference in this fight and Costa's recent fights is that Allen is going to make this fight dirty. He is not going to stand at a distance and strike with the dangerous striking of Costa. Allen is also sharp in the pocket. Allen has sharp boxing and is the better wrestler. He can control where this fight takes place, and Allen will prove how much talent he has.
Pick: Arnold Allen Moneyline (–130)
