The UFC heads down under this weekend for an elite Fight Night card with a pair of ranked bouts. All roads lead to a monumental clash in the Welterweight division, as (#1) Jack Della Maddalena squares off against (#5) Carlos Prates. Below, I'll dive into that bout, and two others, from a sports betting angle. Here are my top UFC Fight Night picks and bets for this weekend's event in Perth, Australia.
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UFC Fight Night Picks: Della Maddalena vs. Prates Bets (Perth)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jack Della Maddalena (+102) vs. Carlos Prates (-122)
Let's pick it up in the main event, which the sports betting market is suggesting is a coin flip. Carlos Prates is currently the slightest of favorites at -122, while Jack Della Maddalena comes back at +102 to rebound from his title fight defeat against Islam Makhachev in November 2025.
I agree that this fight should be in the pick 'em range. Both of these guys are tremendous competitors at 170 lbs., packing a solid punch with great fighter IQ. Still, at the end of the day, someone will depart the octagon with a victory, and I am putting my money behind Jack Della Maddalena in this one.
Carlos Prates, in my opinion, is a bit of a one-trick pony in the cage. Sure, his trick of knocking opponents into oblivion is awesome, but I definitely don't believe he's the more well-rounded fighter in this matchup.
JDM has only been knocked out once across his 18-3-0 career, with that KO coming back in his professional debut in 2016. He does very well to avoid getting hit, with his opponents only landing 37% of their significant strike attempts. Della Maddalena also has the advantage in significant strikes landed per minute (5.57 vs. 3.77), so when considering that the #1 contender doesn't get knocked out and that he should out-strike Prates, we can start to see the path to a JDM victory in front of his fellow countrymen. I'll take JDM at plus-money.
Pick: Jack Della Maddalena Moneyline (+102)
Tim Elliott (+164) vs. Steve Erceg (-198)
Per our Betting Pros odds comparison tool, this fight opened at Steve Erceg -420. We've seen a ton of action come in on Tim Elliott, knocking him down from a +320 underdog to a +164 underdog. Erceg, who most recently beat Ode Osbourne (U-DEC) in August 2025, now sits just under 2-to-1 to win this bout.
Initially, I would've been on the Tim Elliott train and backed him in the 3-to-1 range. However, I think this line has gone too far, and I believe it's time to buy back on Steve Erceg. Typically, I wouldn't be giving out a -198 play, but it does appear to be a valuable wager when comparing the odds to the opening line of -420.
Now, as for how this one plays out, we have two solid wrestlers that'll be going at it. Erceg enters with a height advantage (5' 8" vs. 5' 7") and a reach advantage (68" vs. 66"), and I do believe that he's the better overall wrestler in this bout.
Even if Tim Elliott, who's averaging 3.71 successful takedowns per 15 minutes, can get "Astroboy" to the canvas, we could see Erceg lock in a submission off his back. Across his 13-4-0 career, the Perth native has six submission victories. All things considered, this appears to be a fair price to buy back on Erceg and back him as a favorite.
Pick: Steve Erceg Moneyline (-198)
Tai Tuivasa (-218) vs. Louie Sutherland (+180)
Australia's own Tai Tuivasa will make the walk for the second time already this year, but unfortunately for him, his first effort in January was a loss to Tallison Teixeira (U-DEC). Tuivasa is a -218 moneyline favorite to snap his six-fight skid against Louie Sutherland, who's on an 0-2 run of his own.
The promotion appears to be throwing Tuivasa a lifeline here, offering him a very winnable fight. His last six fights were against tough competition, with the Australian dropping notable bouts against Ciryl Gane (KO-Punches), Sergei Pavlovich (KO-Punches), Alexander Volkov (SUB-Ezekiel Choke), and Jair Rozenstruik (S-DEC).
I mention some of the tough opponents because there's a clear edge for Tuivasa when it comes to the strength of opponent recently. Against a relatively inexperienced Sutherland, I think Tuivasa is primed for a big-time win in Perth. Sutherland is 0-2 in the UFC, and his opponents are landing 78% of their strikes. No, that's not a typo, the Englishman is getting hit on 78% of opposing strike attempts. Tuivasa should tee off on this guy, and I think he uses this opportunity in the spotlight to push for a knockout.
Pick: Tai Tuivasa To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (-125)
