Vikings vs. Panthers: NFL Week 4 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Vikings vs. Panthers.

NFL Betting Primer: Vikings vs. Panthers

Carolina Panthers vs. Minnesota Vikings (MIN -3.5)

The expectations are that Bryce Young will make his return to the lineup, after missing last week. The offense was marginally better with Andy Dalton under center, although it wasn't enough for Carolina to win on the road. Their defense was destroyed by the Seahawks offense - which I expected when I wrote about last week's game in the Week 3 betting primer. Though their defense was overrated based on the weak offenses/QBs they opened the season against.

So, I expect the high-powered Vikings offense to ROLL over the Panthers' reeling defense. I like the over 24.5 points for Minnesota's team total (-102 DraftKings Sportsbook).

And although the Vikings' defense has been terrible - 27 points per game allowed - they have faced two of the best QBs the last two weeks. In Week 1 versus Baker Mayfield, they only gave up 20 - and that was due to a lot of short fields gifted to the Bucs' offense. That game also hit the under at 37 total points. I like the game overall under, and the under on Carolina's offense. Last week against an atrocious Seahawks defense, the Panthers needed a garbage time TD to go over 20 points. Bet the Panthers team total under at 20.5 points (DK Sportsbook -108).

Considering the Panthers offense with Young at QB looks much more like the Bucs than the Eagles/Chargers, I'd opt for the under. Not confident that Carolina can score many points with what we have seen so far from Young. Adam Thielen as the focal point on any offense can only move the needle and generate so many actual points.

Speaking of which.... Thielen's receiving yards prop is listed at 49.5 receiving yards. I'm taking the under. He averaged just 33 receiving yards per game in his first two starts with Young at QB this season. This team is not going to throw nearly as much as they did with Dalton no longer at QB either.

As for the Vikings, I like the over on Jordan Addison. He's gone over the mark in three straight games and has seen his route participation also increase in the offense. Saw a season-high 8 targets in Week 3 but he didn't score.

The Panthers have allowed four different WRs to go over 55 yards over the last two weeks. DK Metcalf hung over 100 yards versus them in Week 3, and Addison is used in a similar fashion (perimeter alignment, 13-plus aDOT) to the Seahawks big-bodied WR.

And although I am firmly on the sell high Alexander Mattison train in fantasy football - he's seeing all the volume he can handle in the offense at the moment. The Panthers are horrible versus the run, so Mattison should easily get over 53.5 rushing yards unless Cam Akers takes over the backfield in Week 4. Carolina has allowed an average of 115 yards and 25 carries to opposing teams.

130 rushing yards allowed in Week 1, 134 in Week 2 and 146 in Week 3. Easy over.

My Picks:

Vikings -3.5 (-110 BetMGM)
Vikings over 24.5 points (-102 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 45.5 (-110 BetMGM)
Panthers under 20.5 points (-108 DraftKings Sportsbook).

My Props:

Adam Thielen under 49.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jordan Addison over 39.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)
Alexander Mattison over 50.5 rushing yards (-109 Caesars Sportsbook)

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.