This week's selections include my favorite player prop of the season thus far, and it’s a prop that involves a rookie.
Man, do I need some winners this week, because I am mired in a mega-slump right now. But a new week dawns, and I'm trusting the process. (I've always thought "trust the process" is a phrase people use to justify losing decisions, but never mind.)
Before we get to this week's selections, a quick recap of Week 5 …
The wins: Ty Chandler over 23.5 rushing yards, Garrett Wilson over 54.5 receiving yards, Amari Cooper over 49.5 receiving yards
The losses: Andy Dalton over 216.5 passing yards, Jordan Love over 258.5 passing yards, Kyren Williams under 82.5 rushing yards, Brandon Aiyuk under 60.5 receiving yards, Jakobi Meyers under 43.5 receiving yards, D.K. Metcalf over 63.5 receiving yards
Fitz’s Favorite Week 6 Prop Bets
- Last week: 3-6
- Season record: 23-28
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday, Oct. 10.
Deshaun Watson UNDER 188.5 passing yards
It seems as if Watson's time as the Browns' starting quarterback is running out. His disastrous tenure in Cleveland keeps hitting new lows. Last week, he could muster only 125 passing yards against a weak Washington pass defense. Watson is averaging 170.4 passing yards per game and just 4.8 yards per attempt. He's failed to clear this number in 4-of-5 games this season and hasn't thrown for 200 yards in a game this season. Watson will be going on the road to face the Eagles this week, and while the Philadelphia secondary isn't exactly airtight, the Eagles have only allowed a 59.6% completion rate. There's a non-zero chance Watson plays poorly and gets benched early in the game. But even if he manages to finish this game, the under on Watson's passing yardage seems like a solid percentage play.
D’Andre Swift UNDER 53.5 rushing yards
Swift has cleared this number in each of his last two games, but last week, he averaged only 3.5 yards per carry against a Panthers run defense that ranked 26th in DVOA and has been getting gashed by running backs for most of the season. Swift is averaging 3.2 yards per carry for the season, and this week, he'll be up against a tough Jacksonville run defense that ranks 11th in DVOA and is yielding 3.8 yards per carry to RBs. Bet the under.
Drake Maye OVER 27.5 rushing yards
Here's my favorite play of the season thus far. Maye will be making his NFL debut at home against the Texans. I'm not expecting his passing numbers to be pretty, but I think he's going to put up some pretty good rushing numbers. Maye was a willing and capable runner during his college career at North Carolina. He averaged 11.4 rushing attempts and 44.1 rushing yards per game during his two seasons as a starter for the Tar Heels — and remember that sack yardage is deducted from a quarterback's rushing yardage at the collegiate level. A rookie quarterback making his first NFL start is probably going to be confused by a lot of the coverages he sees, and the easiest solution is often just to tuck the ball away and run. I think Maye will run for at least 40 yards in this game, so I think he’ll cruise past this very reachable number.
Derrick Henry OVER 85.5 rushing yards
Let's just ride the wave, shall we? Henry has been a holy terror ever since being bottled up by the Chiefs in Week 1, averaging 131.5 rushing yards over his last four games. He's cleared this number in three consecutive games, and I expect him to make it four straight this week in a home game against a Washington defense that's giving up 5.3 yards per carry to running backs.
Tyler Allgeier OVER 38.5 rushing yards
Bijan Robinson is the main attraction in the Falcons' backfield, but he's dealing with a hamstring issue. The Falcons have a Week 6 matchup with the Panthers, and it seems like a good time for Atlanta to ramp up their usage of backup Tyler Allgeier in order to spare Bijan’s tender hammy. The Panthers are giving up 120.6 rushing yards per game to RBs, the third-most in the league, and have faced a league-high 142 RB carries. Allgeier has averaged 7.5 carries a game over the last four weeks and is averaging 5.4 yards per carry for the season. With Bijan perhaps not 100% healthy, we might see Allgeier get double-digit carries against this soft Carolina run defense. I really like the over here.
Ja'Lynn Polk UNDER 25.5 receiving yards
Patriots rookie Ja'Lynn Polk may one day become a fine NFL receiver. Polk isn't there yet, and in fact, he's been woefully ineffective and inefficient over his first five NFL games. Polk has cleared this number just once, topping out at 30 yards against the 49ers in Week 4. He has caught less than half of his targets and is averaging 8.2 yards per catch and just 3.9 yards per target. This week, Polk's targets will be coming from a fellow rookie making his first start at quarterback for the Patriots, Drake Maye. I'm not optimistic that Polk's efficiency improves with a newbie QB.
Marvin Harrison Jr. OVER 54.5 receiving yards
The fourth overall pick in this year's NFL Draft is due for a big game. He's been held to 45 and 36 receiving yards in his last two contests as Harrison continues to work on his chemistry with Cardinals QB Kyler Murray. Harrison’s sluggish start is keeping his yardage props low, and I consider this number a valuable value for a pass-catching prodigy with abundant talent. I like Harrison's chance to clear this relatively low bar against a Green Bay defense that has given up the eighth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
Chris Godwin OVER 63.5 receiving yards
Godwin gets a smash matchup this week against Saints slot corner Alonte Taylor, who has allowed an 85% catch rate and 1.43 yards per route run into his coverage. And Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield might target Godwin heavily, considering that Buccaneers WR Mike Evans has traditionally had difficulty against his longtime nemesis, Saints CB Marshon Lattimore. Over his last six games against the Saints, Evans has averaged 2.8 catches and 50.8 receiving yards. This is an extremely favorable setup for Godwin.
George Pickens OVER 46.5 receiving yards
Pickens has been catching a lot of grief this week for what many people consider to be a less-than-stellar effort against the Cowboys last Sunday night. Pickens has an incentive to silence his critics, and Week 6 looks like a nice bounce-back spot for him. He's facing the Raiders, who have a weak pair of outside cornerbacks. Las Vegas CBs Jack Jones and Jakorian Bennett are graded 82nd and 88th, respectively, among the 101 cornerbacks for whom PFF has assigned grades. Pickens is averaging 62 receiving yards per game and has cleared this number in 3-of-5 games this season. Bet on a revenge game for Pittsburgh's mercurial young receiver.
KaVontae Turpin UNDER 25.5 receiving yards
Here's a prop the BettingPros Player Prop Cheat Sheet really likes, and I agree. Turpin had four catches for 50 yards against the Steelers last week, but that looks like a fluke. Even with Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks on injured reserve, Turpin played just 29% of the Cowboys' offensive snaps — and that was his highest snap share of the season. The cheat sheet projects Turpin for 11.6 receiving yards this week against the Lions.
