What We Learned From NFL Week 12 (2023)

Favorites reigned supreme in Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season. Teams that closed as favorites this weekend finished 12-3 ATS. But of course, in some games it depended on which number you got.

For instance, anyone who had Buffalo +3.5 let out a sigh of relief when the Philadelphia Eagles scored a walk-off touchdown to win 37-34 in overtime, with no extra point kicked. But anyone who didn’t get the best of the number might’ve groaned at a push or outright loss.

Speaking of Bills vs. Eagles, they’ll kick off our Week 12 takeaways.

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Week 12 Betting Takeaways

The Philadelphia Eagles Are Due for Regression

Now, I don’t want a mob of Eagles fans coming at me on Twitter for this. While the 10-1 Eagles are definitely a good team, they’ve had a lot go their way this season. Just look at Philadelphia’s last two wins over Kansas City and Buffalo. In Week 11, the Chiefs dropped the potential game-winning touchdown. This week, it took a comedy of errors from Buffalo for the Eagles to win a game they truly didn’t have much business winning.

Buffalo led most of the way, putting up over 500 yards of offense. But a couple of costly mistakes from Buffalo kept the door open for Philadelphia to come back and steal another win.

Philadelphia, of course, deserves credit; they are 4-0 in games where they’ve trailed by 10 points or more. This team is resilient, talented and hard to put away. But the on-field performance doesn’t indicate a 10-1 team to me. Philadelphia still looks out of sync at times offensively, while the defense still has concerns in the secondary and also lost Fletcher Cox to injury Sunday.

Regression could come in the form of the San Francisco 49ers, who will be looking to exact revenge for last year’s NFC Championship loss. I’ve already taken San Francisco at -115 on the moneyline, but the 49ers are currently -2.5 at most sportsbooks.

**The Denver Broncos Might Be Legit**

The turnaround of the Denver Broncos is one of the most intriguing storylines in the NFL. Denver has now won five straight, with wins coming over Kansas City, Buffalo, Minnesota, Green Bay and Cleveland, all teams still vying for playoff position. A defense that gave up 70 points in Week 3 has morphed into an imposing unit in a matter of weeks.

Russell Wilson and the offense are doing just enough to win games. Wilson has done a nice job of using his mobility to extend plays, and the Broncos have established a solid rotation in the backfield with Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin.

But the real test might still be coming for the Broncos. Up next are three consecutive games on the road against the Texans, Chargers and Lions, none of which will be a walk in the park.

What Denver has done is remarkable. But I’m still hesitant to trust that this turnaround is for real.

Don't Put the Green Bay Packers to Bed Yet

Speaking of teams left for dead a month ago, the Packers are suddenly in the mix of a wide-open NFC wild card race. Thursday’s upset over the Detroit Lions was every bit deserved and might’ve been the true coming-out party for quarterback Jordan Love.

Love went 22 of 32 for 268 yards and three touchdowns against a solid Detroit defense. An undermanned Green Bay defense was good enough, holding the Lions to 5.9 yards per play and forcing three takeaways.

The Packers now sit a game out of the playoffs, with the sliding Seattle Seahawks and division rival Minnesota Vikings occupying the spots ahead of them. Green Bay will get a stiff test with the Chiefs coming to Lambeau Field for a Sunday night showdown. But the schedule is rather favorable afterward, with games against the Giants, Buccaneers, Panthers and Bears still on the schedule, as well as a rematch with Minnesota that could decide a playoff spot.

The Packers are +110 on DraftKings Sportsbook to make the playoffs. You might want to take those odds now if you believe they’re live dogs against KC this weekend.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: