What We Learned From NFL Week 9 (2023)

The NFL season has already reached its halfway point. Playoff races are beginning to shape, and with several marquee matchups on the docket, Week 9 was filled with plenty of important takeaways as we enter November.

Here’s what I learned from the week that was that we can use moving forward as bettors.

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What We Learned From Week 9 of the 2023 NFL Season

The Miami Dolphins Aren't Among the AFC's Elite

The Miami Dolphins are a very good but not yet great team. Once again, the Dolphins failed a test to prove they belong in the conversation of serious Super Bowl contenders.

The Dolphins fell to the Chiefs 21-14 in Germany Sunday morning, putting up their fewest point total and second-fewest yardage total against a strong Kansas City defense. While Miami’s defense certainly deserves credit for holding the Chiefs to just 21 points and 267 total yards, the defensive effort makes the offensive output even more disappointing.

Miami’s now lost three games to the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles and Chiefs, the three best teams by far on their schedule to this point. It’s no coincidence that three of Tua Tagovailoa’s four lowest quarterback ratings have come in those three games, with the other coming in Week 2 to a Patriots defense much closer to full strength than it was two weeks ago.

Miami is a playoff team, and it won’t stun anyone if they come off their Week 10 bye and destroy a lousy Las Vegas Raiders defense at home. The problem is beating up on the dregs of the league and faltering against stronger teams is becoming Miami’s identity. The Dolphins end the season with games against the Jets, Cowboys, Ravens and Bills.

The Buffalo Bills Might Be in Trouble

Following another disappointing performance in primetime, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Buffalo Bills missed the playoffs at this point.

The Bills currently sit ninth in the conference and would lose head-to-head tiebreakers against the Jets, Bengals and Jaguars. There’s no doubt that Buffalo has some issues.

Defensively, the losses of DaQuan Jones, Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White might be too much for this unit to overcome. And that’s not including injuries suffered by Milano’s replacement, linebacker Terell Bernard, and safety Jordan Poyer.

Buffalo’s defense allowed 387 yards to Joe Burrow and the Bengals, recorded just a single sack and allowed Cincinnati to go eight of 15 on third downs. Cincinnati held the ball for more than 36 minutes, and it just felt as if Buffalo’s defense hardly could get off the field when it needed to most. Buffalo’s defense now ranks 16th in EPA.

Offensively, things just feel off. Buffalo’s play calling under Ken Dorsey has taken a step back. And just when it seems like the Bills have momentum, they make critical mistakes like Dalton Kincaid’s fumble inside Cincinnati’s 20-yard line. Josh Allen also continues to have a tendency to make bad mistakes, like his interception in the first half Sunday night.

What’s most egregious is that Buffalo refuses to rely on its running game to take some pressure off Allen. It’s never good when Allen is your leading rusher with eight carries for 44 yards. But it’s inexplicable that James Cook had just six carries against a Cincinnati defense that allows five yards per rush and currently ranks dead-last in rush defense EPA.

Allen is among the game’s best, but the Bills sometimes ask too much of him. Now, Buffalo hosts Denver next Monday night before facing the Jets and Eagles leading into the bye week. After that, things don’t get easier, with the Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots and Dolphins to close out the year.

The season is far from over for Buffalo. But at 5-4, the Bills have plenty to fix.

The Cowboys Just Can't Rise to the Occasion

I know a lot of smart people who took the Dallas Cowboys +3.0 against the Philadelphia Eagles. And while I agreed with that premise, I never took the Cowboys myself. Why? It just feels like Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy almost always come up short when it matters most.

By all measures, the Cowboys should’ve beaten the Eagles on the road Sunday afternoon. They out-gained Philly 406-292, had seven more first downs and averaged nearly one yard per play more than their division rivals.

But once again, when the Cowboys had to make a play, they wilted. And it was the little things that cost them. Luke Schoonmaker failed to get the nose of the football over the goal line on fourth down, trailing 28-17 early in the fourth quarter. Prescott stepped out of bounds on a two-point conversion that would’ve made it a three-point game. Because of that, the Cowboys were forced to go for it on fourth-and-eight from Philly’s 28-yard line on their second-to-last drive instead of kicking a potential game-tying field goal.

Doing the little things right adds up. It’s what separates championship-caliber teams. The NFC is wide open. The Eagles and 49ers are vulnerable front-runners. But Dallas just doesn’t execute when it matters. And as talented as they are, those little mistakes keep me away when betting them to make a playoff run.

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