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Wimbledon Men’s Semifinals Match Odds, Picks & Betting Preview (2021)

by July 8, 2021
Novak Djokovic

The first edition of Wimbledon in two years is in the home stretch. It has been a spectacular week and a half of tennis at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club thus far. Given the gentlemen’s semifinal matchups that we have on tap for Friday, the highlights and thrills are likely far from over.

It is certainly a respected final four in this year’s Wimbledon men’s singles draw. All four semifinalists are seeded in the top-15 of the draw. We also have four different countries represented. Friday’s first semifinal features two men making their respective Wimbledon final four debuts. 7-seed Matteo Berrettini will take on 14-seed Hubert Hurkacz. World No. 1 Novak Djokovic was a massive pre-tournament betting favorite to win his third Grand Slam of 2021. He has lived up to the expectations thus far and will play 10-seed Denis Shapovalov in the second semifinal match.

The following is a betting preview for both of the Wimbledon gentlemen’s semifinals. Read on for the match odds, analysis, and betting picks to help get you ready for Friday’s tennis action.

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Wimbledon Men’s Semifinals Details

Date: Friday, Jul. 9, 2021
Venue: Centre Court — London, EN
Start Time: 8:30 a.m. EST
Coverage: ESPN

Wimbledon Men’s Semifinals Betting Odds and Picks

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

(7) Matteo Berrettini vs. (14) Hubert Hurkacz

Moneyline: Berrettini: (-265) | Hurkacz: (+205)
Games Spread: Berrettini: -3.5 (-129) | Hurkacz: +3.5 (+104)
Total Games: 40.5 — Over: (-109) | Under: (-114)

Matteo Berrettini Background and Overview

After advancing all the way to the Quarterfinals at Roland Garros last month, 25-year-old Matteo Berrettini has taken things a step further here at Wimbledon. This marks his best-ever showing at the All England Lawn Tennis Club and is the second Grand Slam semifinals appearance of his career. Berrettini was also a part of the final four at the 2019 U.S. Open. After a 2020 season of poor results, Berrettini has found himself in a big way in 2021. He won his first ATP 500 level title just last month at the Queen’s Club Championships. He has also appeared in two other finals on tour this season, losing to highly-ranked players both times. Berrettini has won five total ATP Tour titles in his career.

Many liked Berrettini’s potential coming into this year’s Wimbledon. He has certainly been impressive on his run to the Semifinals. After getting extended to a fourth set in what was otherwise a comfortable First Round victory, Berrettini rattled off three consecutive straight-set victories on his way to the Quarterfinals. He took down 16-seed and grass court specialist Felix Auger Aliassime in four sets to secure his spot in the final four. Thanks to Novak Djokovic being in the other half of the draw, the Italian will go off as a sizable tennis betting favorite on Friday.

Hubert Hurkacz Background and Overview

24-year-old Hubert Hurkacz is the darling of the group of men’s semifinalists. This Wimbledon run is the best performance he has ever had at a Grand Slam tournament. The fast grass court surface is certainly his best, evidenced by the fact that Hurkacz has never advanced beyond the Second Round at any of the other three majors. It has been an excellent 2021 season for Hurkacz thus far. He won titles at both the Delray Beach Open and the Miami Open earlier this year to bring his career total to three. With his victory in Miami, Hurkacz entered the top-20 in the ATP World rankings for the first time in his career.

While he is the lowest remaining seed in the draw, there are undoubtedly many tennis fans who are hesitant to label Hurkacz as a Wimbledon ‘darling’. This is largely thanks to his blowout win over fan-favorite and future Hall of Famer Roger Federer in the Quarterfinals on Wednesday. The only true resistance Hurkacz got from the veteran came in the form of a second-set tiebreak, which he won. It marked the fourth straight-sets win of this Wimbledon tournament. It was also the second upset for Hurkacz in as many rounds. He rallied to win a five-set thriller against 2-seed Daniil Medvedev in the Fourth Round.

Match Prediction

Before their semifinal match on Friday, Berrettini and Hurkacz have met on two prior occasions. Each man won once, with Hurkacz claiming the most recent head-to-head meeting back at the 2019 Miami Open. It has been a solid 2021 season for both players. Each would undoubtedly love to have a chance at career Grand Slam title No. 1. 

The one major question mark for Hurkacz is whether or not his five-set Fourth Round match against Medvedev wore him down at all. That match was played over the course of two days due to its length. It certainly didn’t look to affect him at all in Thursday’s Quarterfinal. Then again, something was definitely amiss with Federer on that day. Berrettini is a deserving favorite and has the bonus of previously reaching the final four at a Grand Slam. Look for the Italian to get the job done. The straight game spread of -3.5 is heavily juiced, but bettors can net a potential plus-money return by laying just one game more at DraftKings.

Best Bet: Matteo Berrettini -4.5 Games (+112 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (10) Denis Shapovalov

Moneyline: Djokovic: (-1250) | Shapovalov: (+800)
Games Spread: Djokovic: -6.5 (-150) | Shapovalov: +6.5 (+118)
Total Games: 33.5 — Over: (-108) | Under: (-118)

Novak Djokovic Background and Overview

At this point, it’s not exactly an overstatement to say that men’s tennis is Novak Djokovic and everyone else. Now, he is just two wins away from winning his third Grand Slam title of the year. Djokovic has had the top ranking in the world on lock since February of last year. He counts wins at the Australian and French Open among his three titles this year. The 34-year-old ranks fifth in the Open Era with 84 career titles and is now aiming to win his 20th career Grand Slam championship. There’s a reason why Djoker was an odds-on favorite in the Wimbledon pre-tournament futures market.

It has been a comfortable Wimbledon run for the Serbian up to this point. He has only dropped one set in his first five matches. In fact, it was his very first set of the tournament. Home countryman Jack Draper took the opening set of his First Round match against the world No. 1. Djokovic hasn’t lost a set since, most recently blowing out Marton Fucsovics in the Quarterfinals. That was the 100th grass-court victory of Djokovic’s professional career and secured his tenth appearance in the Wimbledon Semifinals. 

Denis Shapovalov Background and Overview

The youngest of the four semifinalists, 22-year-old Denis Shapovalov, finds himself a massive 8-1 tennis betting underdog ahead of Friday’s match. This is the furthest he has advanced at any Grand Slam in his career, besting a Quarterfinals run in last year’s U.S. Open. Shapovalov has plenty of talent, evidenced by his 10-seed in the Wimbledon draw and No. 12 world ranking. He is left-handed, a physical trait that he can perhaps take advantage of against Djokovic. Any wrinkle he can come up with will certainly be worth trying. Shapovalov has one ATP Tour title thus far, with this being the fifth year of his pro career.

Shapovalov has had to endure a little bit of everything on his run to the Wimbledon Semifinals. He was pushed to the limit in his First Round match, ultimately outlasting Phillip Kohlschreiber in five sets. Then, he caught a bit of a break with a walkover victory in Round 2. After earning impressive straight-set wins over Andy Murray and 8-seed Roberto Bautista-Agut, Shapovalov managed to take down 25-seed Karen Khachanov in a thrilling Quarterfinals match. Down two sets to one, the young Canadian maintained his composure and won 12 of the final 17 games to earn the win. He blasted 17 aces in that match, but trying to overpower Djokovic will be a whole lot tougher.

Match Prediction

Virtually everything seems to indicate a comfortable Semifinals victory for Djokovic on Friday. This includes the head-to-head history between him and Shapovalov. Djoker has triumphed in all six previous matches. Now two wins away from winning a third consecutive Wimbledon championship, only a daring bettor would take a shot on Shapovalov as an 8-1 underdog.

When it comes to making a match prediction, noting discrepancies in the tennis betting odds is key to maximize one’s potential payout. Until Djokovic actually loses another set in this tournament, it’s impossible not to presume a victory in straight sets. In addition, he has only dropped one set to Shapovalov in their six previous matches. The odds variation comes between the sets spread and total sets. Laying 2.5 sets with Djokovic has -125 odds compared to -137 on playing under 3.5 total sets. This implies a 12-cent chance that Shapovalov wins in straight sets. I hate to say it, but the chance of that happening is nowhere near worth 12 cents. We’ll take the value on the set spread as our best bet.

Best Bet: Novak Djokovic -2.5 Sets (-125 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.