The 2025 WNBA Finals tip off on Friday night for Game 1 of a best-of-seven series between the Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces at Michelob ULTRA Arena at Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed or streamed on ESPN.
We analyze Friday’s contest for the best bets. Let’s build our bankroll with our best WNBA picks & predictions for Friday, October 3rd.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Friday’s Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Phoenix Mercury (+126) at Las Vegas Aces (-154) | O/U 159.5 (-114/-106)
The Mercury are looking to tie the Minnesota Lynx, Seattle Storm and defunct Houston Comets with four all-time WNBA Championships. The Mercury will be making their sixth-ever appearance in the Finals, and their first trip since losing in 2021 to the Chicago Sky. The last time the Mercury had a banner raised was 2014, topping, yep, the Sky.
For the Aces, they’re making their fifth appearance in the WNBA Finals as a franchise. The Aces won back-to-back championships in 2022 and 2023, led by current head coach Becky Hammon and superstar A’ja Wilson.
These teams met four times in the regular season, with Las Vegas going 3-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). Phoenix won the first meeting 76-70 in Vegas on June 15th as a 4.5-point favorite, as the under (164) cashed in a game Wilson missed due to injury. Las Vegas won both meetings in the Valley of the Sun, cashing both times as an underdog. The under was 3-1 in the four games this season.
Phoenix has made the WNBA Finals by ousting both combatants from last season’s championship series. Phoenix topped New York in three games in the first round, while dropping the Minnesota Lynx in four games in the semi-finals. The Mercury is 5-1 ATS in the past six playoff games, while cashing the over in three in a row.
Las Vegas topped the Seattle Storm in the first round, while going 1-2 ATS. The Aces had their hands full with the injury-plagued Indiana Fever in the semi-finals, getting taken to five games despite a slew of missing players for Indiana. In fact, the Fever pushed the Aces to Game 5 in overtime at Mandalay Bay, before the Aces finally shook them off, 107-98. Las Vegas cashed three of the final four games of the series, and the over came through in the final two games against the Fever.
For the Aces, Wilson leads the way with 26 points per game (PPG) with 9.1 rebounds per game (RPG), while going for 3.0 assists per game (APG) and 2.8 blocks per game (BPG). Jackie Young is second on the team with 20.5 PPG, and she has made an impressive 93.8% of her free throws. Chelsea Gray leads the way with 7.3 APG, while averaging 10.9 PPG with 2.3 steals per game (SPG). She has hit 48% from behind the three-point line, too.
Alyssa Thomas has done it all for the Mercury, leading the team with 18.6 PPG, 9.1 APG, 8.4 RPG and 2.0 SPG, while hitting 47% from the field. Satou Sabally is good for 17.9 PPG and 7.4 RPG, while the third member of the “Big Three,” Kahleah Copper, is good for 15 PPG, while hitting 94.1% from the charity stripe.
This is going to be a tremendous series, and Game 1 should start with a bang in Las Vegas. We’ll side with the Aces laying the little bit of points, and we’ll roll with the over (159.5), as things should be rather wide open early on in the series, before the intensity gets ratcheted up later on down the line.
Let’s bet on Thomas to go over a combined 34.5 points + rebounds + assists. She was an absolute beast in the final three games of the series with the Lynx, averaging 21 PPG, 8.3 RPG and 10.3 APG. In the two meetings in Las Vegas, Thomas averaged 15.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 9.5 APG. Look for her to show out. If you so choose, taking the Aces, the over, and the Thomas combo prop in a three-way same-game parlay (SPG) pays +500.
Picks: Aces -3 (-112), Over 159.5 Points (-114) & Alyssa Thomas Over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122)
Joe Williams is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Joe, check out his archive and follow him @winwithjoe