Friday night's WNBA slate is a loaded one with five games on the schedule. It should be a fun night in the W as the playoffs draw ever closer. Our WNBA picks tonight feature the Sun vs. Mercury and the Storm vs. Wings matchups. Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these top WNBA predictions and betting picks!
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WNBA Best Bets for Friday, September 13
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Connecticut Sun (-4.5) at Phoenix Mercury - 158.5 O/U (-110/-110)
Friday night's game between the Connecticut Sun and Phoenix Mercury is a potential preview of a postseason matchup. Both squads are firmly in the playoffs and could end up facing each other in the first round, depending on seeding.
Simply put, this has proven to be a bad matchup for Phoenix. These teams have met three times already this season, with Connecticut covering the spread as the favorite each time - winning by 27, 11, and 23 points. Tonight's spread is in the single digits, which is totally understandable, but there's value in the Sun on the road.
Connecticut will have an advantage in one key area in this matchup. The Sun boast an elite three-point defense, holding opponents to 31.4% from deep this season (second in WNBA) and 6.4 made threes per game (first). Meanwhile, Phoenix's three-point shooting has been inconsistent this season. The Mercury are shooting 33.5% from beyond the arc this year, with only one player, Diana Taurasi, averaging at least two made threes per game.
This matchup X-factor was evident in those previous meetings between Connecticut and Phoenix. In the three losses, the Mercury shot 3.7%, 17.6%, and 28.0% from three as the Sun built up big leads in each.
It doesn't help that Phoenix's best player, Kahleah Copper, is slumping a bit offensively lately too. The star guard is averaging 15.3 PPG and shooting 38.3% from the field over the past six games - down from her season-long 21.6 PPG and 43.8% averages. The Mercury are 1-5 in this stretch, with all five losses coming by double-digits.
Finally, we have a concerning trend for Mercury as an underdog. They have failed to cover the spread 9 straight times as dogs, dating back to June. Plus, Phoenix is just 2-7-1 ATS over the past 10 games overall. Connecticut, meanwhile, is 4-2 ATS over the past six games.
WNBA Pick: Connecticut Sun -4.5 (-110)
Seattle Storm (-7) at Dallas Wings - 170.5 O/U (-112/-108)
Our second WNBA pick today takes us to a matchup between the Seattle Storm and Dallas Wings. This should be an easy win for Seattle, the No. 5 seed in the current playoff bracket, as the Wings are 9-27 this year and stuck in a five-game losing streak. Instead, let's look at the total.
Dallas has the worst defense in the WNBA this season, allowing a league-high 91.5 PPG and 47.2% field-goal percentage. Opponents are also shooting 36.1% from three against the Wings (second-worst in the league). Lately, those defensive issues have become even more glaring, with Dallas' lost season coming to a close.
Since the Olympics break, the Wings are allowing a whopping 95.6 PPG, with opponents shooting 48.4% from the field and 38.3% from three. They've given up at least 90 points in 7 of the last 8 games as well. In turn, the over is 6-2 during this stretch.
Seattle has the offensive firepower to exploit Dallas' woeful defense. The Storm have scored 90 points in back-to-back games coming into tonight and are averaging 82.4 PPG over the past seven contests. Over the past month, Seattle's "Big 3" has been as good as any in the league. Jewell Lloyd (19.2 PPG since the Olympics break), Skylar Diggins-Smith (18.7), and Nneka Ogwumike (15.0) should carve up a soft matchup here.
In the Storm's previous meetings with Dallas this season, they put up 95, 97, and 92 points, with the over cashing in two of the three games. Tonight's contest should have a similar result.
Plus, the Wings have a sneaky offense of their own. They're averaging 84.1 PPG this year (fourth in WNBA) and boast three potent scorers in Arike Ogunbowale (22.6 PPG), Natasha Howard (17.8), and Satou Sabally (17.7). This one has the over written all over it. Dallas games have hit the over in 12 past 17 contests and are 23-12-1 to the over this season.
WNBA Pick: Over 170.5 Total Points (-112)
