The 2025 WNBA Finals continue Friday night for Game 4 of this best-of-seven series between the Las Vegas Aces and the Phoenix Mercury at the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix. The Aces lead the series 3-0, and they could hoist a trophy with a win. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed or streamed on ESPN. We analyze Friday’s contest for the best bets. Let’s build our bankroll with our best WNBA picks & predictions for Friday, October 10th.
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Friday’s Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Las Vegas Aces (-148) at Phoenix Mercury (+120) | O/U 163.5 (-108/-112)
The Aces are up 3-0 in the series, and Las Vegas is on the precipice of a third WNBA Championship in the past four seasons. In 2022, head coach Becky Hammon posted a 3-1 series win over the Connecticut Sun, while the Aces won in five games against the New York Liberty in 2023.
This is the first-ever best-of-seven WNBA Finals, and the Aces are looking for the sweep. The last team to win in a sweep was the Seattle Storm, winning in three games over the Aces in 2020 in ‘The Wubble’ in Bradenton, Fla., during the weird COVID-19 season.
The Phoenix Mercury lost in four games in the 2021 WNBA Finals against the Chicago Sky. The Mercury are aiming for their first title since 2014, and the third in franchise history. However, it must dig out of a 0-3 series hole, something which just isn’t done at the major sports level.
The Aces have won six straight meetings since the Mercury won the first matchup of the regular season on June 15th in Las Vegas. Not only are the Aces 6-0 straight up (SU) since June 29th, but Las Vegas is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) during that span. The over has cashed in all three games in the WNBA Finals, while going 4-1 in the past five meetings, and 7-3 in the past 10 in the series.
Phoenix put up quite the fight in Game 3, but Las Vegas ended up winning 90-88. The Mercury shot 43.9% (29-of-66) from the field, while the Aces shot 42.6% (29-of-68). The Aces were 37.5% (9-of-24) from behind the three-point line, while the Mercury hit 33.3% (7-of-21) from downtown. The Aces had 36 rebounds to 33 for the Mercury. Phoenix turned it over 12 times to 10 for Las Vegas. There weren’t a ton of differences on the stat sheet.
The Mercury’s Satou Sabally exited the game early due to a head injury in a collision with Kierstan Bell, and she has been ruled out for Game 4. She still finished with 34 points, five rebounds, three assists and a block. DeWanna Bonner stepped up off the bench, posting 25 points and 10 rebounds with a swat, and she’ll be a huge part of the rotation with Sabally sidelined. Alyssa Thomas went for 14 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists with two steals in 39 minutes.
For the Aces, A’ja Wilson scored a game-best 34 points on 11-of-20 from the field, while adding 14 rebounds, four assists and three blocks in 38 minutes. Jackie Young chipped in with 21 points and nine assists, while Jewell Loyd scored 16 points off the bench, hitting four three-pointers with seven rebounds and a steal in 30 minutes.
In Game 4, with Sabally sidelined, the Aces likely will have the way paved to a victory and the sweep. We’ll go with the over, too, as the total has gone high in each of the first three games of the series. Why stop now? Let’s also go with Alyssa Thomas again on the over on her combined points + rebounds + assists prop. She’ll be the No. 1 scoring option for the Mercury, and it won’t even be close. We’ll also roll with A’ja Wilson to finish off the series in style, going over her 25.5-point threshold.
Picks: Aces -3 (-112), Over 163.5 Points (-108), Alyssa Thomas Over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115) & A’ja Wilson Over 25.5 Points (-113)
Joe Williams is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Joe, check out his archive and follow him @winwithjoe