The 2024 WNBA is in full swing with the Commissioner’s Cup heating up and I will be here breaking down the top picks on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays this season. Join me as we build our bankrolls this summer!
Last night (Wednesday) I let you guys know about the last-minute Angel Reese Points+Rebounds prop drop from 20.5 to 19.5 that you could boost back to plus odds. If you tailed, congratulations. If not, there is no time to start like the present so follow me for future last-minute picks!
Here are my top WNBA picks for Thursday, June 13 in these three Commissioner’s Cup matchups!
Last Time: 1-1 | Season Record: 12-12
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Thursday’s Best WNBA Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Atlanta Dream (-3.5) at Indiana Fever (+130) | O/U 162.5 (-110/-110)
This number…at these odds….are simply toooo good. This will be Clark’s first home game since her “Team USA snub” and she’s sure to put the pedal to the metal as her inability to win a medal should be extra motivation to prove her mettle…but I digress.
Clark averages 16.3 points per game for the season and that number jumps to 17.4 when she’s in the friendly confines of Gainbridge Fieldhouse. She has been held to totals of 30, 20, 11, 3, 30, and 10 points over her last six contests. The first 30 and 20 were two of her last three home games and she even scored 17 (would’ve caught the hook against 17.5) against the vaunted Connecticut Sun defense. That scary “3′ and the 10 came against the Liberty and the aforementioned Sun so they are forgivable and both came on the road as well.
Another thing to keep in mind when analyzing Clark’s numbers is that she has played 13 career WNBA games. Out of those 13 games, eight have been against three of the top four teams in the league in terms of Defensive Rating: Connecticut Sun (90.9), Seattle Storm (92.3), and New York Liberty (94.1). Atlanta ranks sixth in the W with a Defensive Rating of 99.1 so this should feel like a relative reprieve for the rookie phenom.
If you can grab this prop at +100 or better, hit it quicker than Caitlin Clark gets off a 30-footer.
WNBA Picks: Caitlin Clark Over 17.5 Points (+100)
Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) at Phoenix Mercury (+230) | O/U 162.5 (-112/-108)
This pick is a no-brainer. Books continue to set Kelsey Plum’s three-pointer line at 2.5 despite the fact she has nailed this number in nine of ten games this season. In fact, in the lone game she didn’t hit three or more, back on May 29 in Minnesota, she still sank two. That being said, Vegas has juiced every ounce out of the odds so be sure to shop around.
Props like this, which have been juiced to a shrivel but still remain at the “lock” number, are great for augmenting parlays to plus odds. I call them Boosts in a Can because they aren’t much by themselves, but add “water” and voila!
WNBA Picks: Kelsey Plum Over 2.5 Three-Pointers (-175)
If Clark’s prop falls back into minus-territory, consider parlaying it with Plum’s Boost in a Can prop for a greater than 2-to-1 return for FanDuel Sportsbook!
Parlay Odds: +206
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Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports and Discord @alydar1227 AKA The GIFTing Crooner. For more from Luke, check out his archive.