The WNBA returns on Tuesday after the All-Star break. The slate is loaded with five games, including some of the best teams in the league. Let's take a deeper look at a few of these matchups for my best WNBA picks and bets of the day.
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Tuesday’s Best WNBA Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Sparks at Washington Mystics
These two teams played in their last game before the All-Star break in a game where the Sparks used a scorching shooting performance to win 99-80. This game comes back to the East Coast, and the Mystics are now the favorites.
The Sparks have been playing some high-scoring games recently. They've been a part of four consecutive overs, and a big reason why is their 90.5 points per game (PPG) average over those four games. Despite their 8-14 record, their offense has been one of the best in the league with a sixth-ranked offensive rating. They shoot at a 45% clip, which is fourth-best in the league, and they've had success against a lot of defenses.
Washington, as they showed last week, will have their hands full with Kelsey Plum, Dearica Hamby and Azura Stevens, who all had strong performances in their last meeting. However, the Los Angeles defense is another story. The 86.9 PPG they allow is better than only the lowly Sun. The Mystics shot about their season averages last Tuesday, which was an uncharacteristically good performance by the Sparks defense. I expect Washington to do even better at home and for both of these teams to play to the over.
Pick: Over 167.5 Points (-112)
Chicago Sky at Minnesota Lynx
In an odd schedule quirk, this will be the third matchup in 10 days for these two teams. They split the first two with each team getting a win straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). Chicago was able to stay right with Minnesota in both matchups, and a big reason why was some stellar shooting. The Sky shot a combined 47.1% from the field in the two contests, including 35.5% from deep.
Minnesota has been one of the best defenses in the league all year. They rank first in defensive rating, and only the Liberty and Valkyries allow a lower opponent field-goal rate, and no one allows fewer than the 30% three-point rate they allow to opponents. Were the Chicago shooting performances a product of a good matchup or small sample sizing?
The Lynx dominated in most aspects of both matchups besides rebounding and shooting percentage. In the second game, where they won 91-78, they evened the rebounding numbers, which is right about where these teams sit on their season averages. I expect Minnesota’s defense to contain Chicago’s offense a little better and for them to both win and cover another matchup between these foes.
Pick: Lynx -15.5 (-108)
Atlanta Dream at Las Vegas Aces
Despite back-to-back wins for the Aces, something still doesn't feel right. It's been rough going for the team that has spent the last few years as one of the main contenders in the WNBA. Their 11-11 record SU has them battling for a playoff spot, while their 8-14 ATS record is one of the worst in the league.
There isn't a whole lot that the Aces have done particularly well on either side of the ball. They get to the free throw line often, and they shoot well when they're there, but the Dream aren't a team that gives up a lot of free-throw attempts. They allow just 17.6 free-throw attempts per game, which is third-lowest in the league.
One area where the Dream thrives is defensive rebounding. Their defensive rebounding rate is the highest in the league at 79%. They should clean up the boards on any Aces misses, as the Aces aren't a particularly strong offensive rebounding team.
Las Vegas has disappointed ATS all season, especially at home where they're getting too much of a cushion cooked in. Las Vegas is a very strong team, and I expect them to add to the Aces’ spread woes again on Tuesday with a strong road performance.
Pick: Dream +2 (-108)
