The WNBA has two games on Tuesday that should intrigue even the most casual fans. First, the Sky take on the Mystics in a rare weekday matinee. Then, in primetime, it's a 2023 WNBA Finals rematch as the Aces travel to New York to take on the Liberty. Both games should be exciting, and the spreads indicate as much. Let's take a deeper look at both matchups for my best WNBA picks and bets.
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Tuesday’s Best WNBA Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chicago Sky at Washington Mystics WNBA Picks
Don't look now, but there's no team hotter against the spread (ATS) than the Chicago Sky. Despite going just 2-3 straight up (SU), the Sky have rallied off five straight ATS wins, covering by an average of 9.4 points per game (PPG). The Mystics have been pretty good ATS in their own right, going 10-8 ATS to start the year, including a 5-3 mark at home.
We've already seen these two teams play on June 17th, where the Mystics won and covered the 4.5-point spread in Chicago. A big reason the Mystics had success was that they were able to out-rebound the Sky. The 32-31 advantage on the glass for Washington was a rare occasion versus one of the best rebounding teams in Chicago. However, this shouldn't come as a surprise since the Mystics rank second in defensive rebounding rate (DReb%) in the league and can be a kryptonite to Chicago's biggest offensive weapon.
Chicago had a fairly strong shooting game in the last matchup, making 49.2% from the field despite a slightly below average three-point game. Washington is an elite rebounding team and can make life miserable for opposing three-point shooters. With the early start, I love the home team to cover.
Pick: Mystics -6.5 (-110)
Las Vegas Aces at New York Liberty WNBA Picks
Although these are the last two WNBA Champions, only one of them has looked the part this year. It's been a struggle for the Aces, who sit just 9-9 on the season and in eighth place in the standings. A big reason is the drop-off on the defensive end. They've gone from a perennial top-five defense to ranking ninth in defensive rating this year.
New York has run into their struggles lately. After a 9-0 start, the Liberty have gone just 3-6 SU and 0-9 ATS in the next nine games. However, the offense has continued to hum despite the losses piling up. They've still averaged 82.9 PPG during this stretch and remain one of the top offenses in the league with an impressive three-point rate of 35.1% with one of the top volumes from deep.
Much like their earlier matchup this season, I expect a high-scoring game. The Liberty won that one 92-78 despite a 4-for-21 shooting day from behind the arc. We should expect an even better performance. With defensive woes in recent games from both teams here, I don't think either team will have trouble scoring, so I'll be playing the over.
Pick: Over 165 Points (-110)
