The WNBA is back, and Saturday gives us our second day of action with a lot of new teams, a shakeup of players and plenty of storylines. There are four games on this slate with a lot to consider. Caitlin Clark plays her first regular-season game in nearly 10 months, A’ja Wilson and the Aces get their championship rings and the Portland Fire play their first game in franchise history. I'll be here once a week to provide my top WNBA picks for Saturday’s game Mercury vs. Aces.
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Saturday’s Best WNBA Picks: Mercury vs. Aces
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Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces
This WNBA Finals rematch tips off at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC. The Aces are around 8.5-point favorites with the total at 166.5. Las Vegas hosts ring night at T-Mobile Arena and then gets back in action to try and defend their win.
This time, I'm taking a player prop, and why fix what's not broken? The play here is A'ja Wilson’s points prop. Her 2025 average led the WNBA at nearly 24 points. She just won her fourth MVP, she’s chasing a three-peat and her opponent lost both Satou Sabally in free agency and Kathryn Westbeld to a torn ACL.
Phoenix’s primary defender on Wilson is now Natasha Mack, who is good but undersized at 6-foot-3. Wilson averaged 26 points per game against the Mercury in last year’s WNBA Finals, and I am playing into the narrative that the heightened opening tip will give her additional motivation.
The one risk is the back-to-back. Vegas plays in Los Angeles on Sunday, and Becky Hammon could pull her starters early if this gets out of hand. But that case probably means Wilson hit her over by the third quarter anyway. The BettingPros prop bet cheat sheet projects this line closer to 27, so there's still value here, even with juice.
Pick: A’ja Wilson Over 23.5 Points (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)mount.
Pick: Sky -4.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
