There are only two WNBA games tonight. Below, I highlight why the Portland Fire and New York Liberty are set for another high-scoring game. Then I detail why I expect the Connecticut Sun to remain competitive in a low-scoring game against the Golden State Valkyries. Here are the best WNBA picks for Monday, May 25th.
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Monday’s Best WNBA Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Portland Fire at New York Liberty
These two teams have already met twice this season, and both contests have been high scoring. In the first game, the Fire won 98-96, while in the second, the Liberty won 100-82. With these two scores in mind, I'm a little surprised to see the total listed below 180.
One area of concern is definitely the Liberty playing their second game of a back-to-back. Last night, they scored just 76 points, and they've now scored fewer than 80 in back-to-back games.
But for as much as they've struggled recently, they're still averaging 94 points per game, and they're about to play the Fire for the first time in New York. If they could score at least 96 points in both road games, I’d love for them to hit the same number here.
For as bad as the Fire have been defensively this season, the offense has actually been solid. They're averaging 86.3 points per game Even if they only score 80 in this contest, which would be less than in either of their previous two games against the Liberty, I'd still expect this game to reach at least 177. The Fire have scored at least 82 points in all but one game this season.
Pick: Over 176.5 Points (-115)
Connecticut Sun at Golden State Valkyries
The Valkyries are allowing just 77.6 points per game, the lowest total in the WNBA. They're one of only two teams allowing fewer than 80 points per game, and they've held two of their last three opponents to 70 points or fewer. This season, only one team has scored more than 80 against them.
Tonight, the Valkyries get to face the worst offense in the league, as the Sun are averaging just 77.3 points per game. The Sun scored just 59 points on Friday against the Seattle Storm. It was their second game this season with fewer than 70 points. They've only scored more than 80 three times in seven games, and I expect them to really struggle in this one.
Yet, with a spread of 12.5 points, the Sun's team total is set at just 74.5 points. While I could absolutely see them scoring fewer than 74 points, I'm more confident in taking the under for the entire game. While Connecticut is allowing over 90 points per game, the Valkyries rank 11th in the league in points per game.
Pick: Under 160.5 Points (-110)
Connecticut Sun at Golden State Valkyries
Despite thinking the Sun will struggle to score in this game, I actually like them to cover the spread. This spread opened at 9.5 and has since climbed to 12.5, which I think overvalues the Valkyries, even against the league’s worst team.
While the Valkyries have two wins of at least 16 points this season, they've lost two of their last three overall. Plus, the Sun are actually playing relatively well of late. While they have only one win this season, that victory came last Wednesday.
Connecticut may have started the season hapless, but in their last four games, they have one win, and two of their three losses came by seven or fewer points.
Pick: Sun +12.5 (-112)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.