Tonight's WNBA schedule features two Commissioner's Cup games. Below, I explain why I expect the Seattle Storm's offensive struggles to continue against the Dallas Wings. Then, I highlight two plays backing the Minnesota Lynx, as they battle the Phoenix Mercury for the second time this season. Here are the best bets and WNBA picks for Monday, June 1.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Monday's Best WNBA Picks & Bets
(Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook)
Storm Under 77.5 Points (-108)
The Storm enter this game with serious offensive problems. They're averaging just 78.7 points per game, which is the second-lowest average in the league, and they’ve scored 72 or fewer points in back-to-back games. In fact, they have 80 or fewer points in seven of their nine games this season.
Tonight, they face the Wings, who have the sixth-best scoring defense in the league. While the Wings are allowing 84.8 points per game, they've held three opponents to 76 or fewer points this season.
With a 12.5-point spread, there's a chance that this becomes a sloppy game late, which allows the Storm to sneak away with their Over. However, the Storm have played eight of their nine games against the six worst defenses in the WNBA. Still, the offense has had no success.
Lynx -3.5 (-106)
There's a chance this is a trap, but I can't justify taking the Mercury here. They're just 2-7, and though they're playing at home, they're just 1-3 in Phoenix this season. They already hosted the Lynx earlier this season and lost by four, despite Kahleah Copper scoring 30 points.
Meanwhile, the Lynx have been road warriors this season. They're a perfect 4-0, winning by an average of 9.75 points per game. They've won back-to-back road games by double-figures, with their most recent victory coming by 21 points.
The Lynx are allowing just 79.1 points per game, which is the second-fewest in the league. Meanwhile, the Mercury are averaging 83.7 points per contest, which ranks 10th. I expect the Lynx to do a better job accounting for Copper than they did earlier this season, as they move to 5-0 in away games.
Lynx Over 84.5 Points (-118)
Since I like the Lynx to cover, this play shouldn't come as a surprise. However, there is more to this than simply backing the team I expect to win and cover. While the Mercury have held three consecutive opponents to 84 points or fewer, all three of those performances came against teams averaging fewer points per game than the Lynx.
The Lynx are averaging 88.4 points per game, which is sixth-best in the league. Though the Mercury rank eighth in scoring defense, they're still allowing 85.3 points per game. When these two teams met earlier this season, the Lynx shot 50% from the floor and scored 88 points.
The Lynx have scored at least 85 points in six of their eight games this season. They've yet to score fewer than 79, so they enter this game with a really high floor. Meanwhile, the Mercury have allowed at least 82 points in eight of their nine games. Though they only allowed 75 in their last game, it also came in their second meeting with the Liberty in three days. In the first meeting, they allowed 84.
No matter how you dissect this game, it would be shocking if the Lynx weren't at least close to this number. Even though the price is a bit expensive, I'll back them in a great matchup. And parlaying this with Lynx -3.5 increases the price to +140.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.