We have settled into the WNBA season, where teams are showing their identity as the storylines shape and the excitement plays out. There are three games on today’s slate, with a lot to consider as we return to the regular season. The highlight is Fever-Dream to start the day, and that's honestly it, but games are games. We had one of our first losing weeks of the season, where every single bet came within a possession of cashing or not cashing either way. I'll be here once a week to provide the best WNBA picks for the Saturday slate. Let's get to it.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Saturday’s Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
Last Time: 1-2 | Season: 8-5
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream
Starting off at noon ET on ABC, the Dream hosts the Fever in what should be an awesome game. The Fever are favored by 5.5 points with the total around 177.5 points. We just saw this game on Thursday in a blockbuster performance with both teams going over 100 points. All five Dream starters scored in the double-digits with Angel Resse leading the way (21). Now, they return home.
In recent play, Atlanta has been nearly unstoppable. They are 4-2 at home straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), and have been the second-best team in their last seven games straight up. Caitlin Clark is still not 100%, and the Fever are overly dependent on her to keep games close.
On the defensive side, I don't expect them to keep up. The Dream's offense just has too many options, and with the home crowd the way it is, I imagine home court advantage plays strongly here. The Dream should be an easy cover.
Pick: Dream -5.5 (-105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury
The next game is also on ABC, but not as strong as Fever-Dream. The Storm and Mercury are both well under .500, with Seattle coming in losing nine straight, while the Mercury are 2-8 over their last 10 games. In that same time frame, the Mercury and Storm are both bottom-three teams offensively, while repping some pretty decent defense, which is the path I'm taking here.
To go with both defenses having the advantage here, the Mercury plays at one of the slowest tempos in the league, while Seattle isn't much faster, ranking 11th overall. Interestingly, Seattle’s defense is better on the road, while its offense only gets worse.
This is the second time these two teams have matched up. The first outing was a close 72-68 score (140 points). The total today sits at 162.5. While I believe the number won't be as low as last matchup, it's still a clear under play.
Pick: Under 162.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings
Finally, tonight, the 4-10 Chicago Sky travel south to take on the Dallas Wings in search of their 10th win. On the surface, Dallas has had a solid defense all season.
Nothing to write home about, but it is a top-six unit that plays at the 10th-slowest pace in the league. Opponents attempt the second-fewest threes per game against them, and they allow very few offensive boards.
But when you dig deeper, this team will be a brick wall based on the splits. Over their last seven games, Dallas has been the second-best defense in the league. More importantly, the Wings have the best defense in the league at home by a wide margin. The difference between the Wings and the Lynx in second is the same as the difference between second and eighth.
Offensively, the Chicago Sky have been bad, to say the least. They rank 13th overall and 13th on the road. They are the worst-rated unit over their last seven matches. Considering how these two teams are playing right now, even with Dallas’s injury concerns, I wouldn't be surprised if they fail to reach 70 points. Don't be afraid to bet some alts here.
Pick: Sky Team Total Under 80.5 Points (-110 at Hard Rock Bet)
