The All-Star break is officially in the rearview mirror now as we can look towards the playoffs on the horizon. The WNBA is heating up at just the right time with teams getting healthy and starting to jockey for standings. I'll be coming at you once a week with the best bets on the Saturday WNBA slate. Be sure to check out my other articles covering first basket bets and player props as well to help you print some money this season.
It was a clean sweep last time out and now I plan to run it back again tonight. Here are my best bets for the Saturday, August 22nd slate.
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Saturday’s Best Bets and Predictions
Last Time: 3-0 | Season: 19-15
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty
The Indiana Fever head to the northeast as the New York Liberty host in the Barclays Center. The Liberty sit around 2.5-point favorites with the total at 186.5 points.
With pre-season expectations in mind, it's hard to think of a team with a more disappointing season so far than the Liberty. They have the worst ATS record in the league and currently rank 6th in league standings with very real danger of falling to 8th. Indiana meanwhile is only two games ahead of them with Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston going on and off the injury report. Right now both are questionable but expected to play.
Obviously, if either or both of them are out, that changes a lot of things so take this play with a grain of salt. Assuming they are both in, it's hard to doubt the Fever's offense in this one. They have the best offensive rating all year and it's been even better in their last five games. Their defense on the other hand ranks fifth. The Liberty actually pace-up the Fever too so I do expect to see some running and gunning in this one.
Sataou Sabally and Jonquel Jones might be out or questionable but with Sabrina Ionescu back to hold things down with Breanna Stweart and company, I think we see a lot of points in this one. The total is already high but I imagine offense will be a dominant force on either end of the court here.
Pick: Over 186.5 Total Points (-112 at FanDuel)
Connecticut Sun vs. Los Angeles Sparks
Next up we have the Sun going out West as the Los Angeles Sparks host as 3.5 point favorites. The total here is much smaller with it sitting around 166.6 points. I'll spoil this one here and tell you I'm taking a player prop.
The total is lower and I'm choosing to trust that here mainly because opportunity will be limited with a pace-down situation with the Sun as the 12th lowest pace of play team in the league and the Sparks slowing down as the season progresses. Diamond Miller has been a solid guard all season long but her usage rate and recent play is not strong enough to justify this prop being so high. Yes, the Sparks' defense is quite bad but considering it's been a bottom unit all year, it's actually taken a step forward in their last 10 games, despite their record. Don't fall into the trap of taking Overs simply because of poor defense here, that's already baked into the line. She hasn't covered this number in seven of her last 12 games and won't tonight either.
Pick: Diamond Miller Under 17.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-105 at Fanatics)
Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury
Finally tonight we have the Atlanta Dream taking on the Phoenix Mercury as road favorites of 5.5 points.
Simply put, I think Atlanta is insanely hot right now and this line isn't giving them enough respect. Over their last five games their net rating is twice as high as Minnesota's is in second place. The difference between Atlanta in first and Minnesota is the same as the Lynx and Seattle in eighth. You don't wanna face the Dream right now.
Unfortunately for Phoenix, it's the opposite. They've gone 1-4 in their last five games with a 13th ranked net rating with a struggling offensive unit. Kelsey Plum is questionable which is an even bigger concern for the Mercury and the Dream don't really take a step back when playing on the road. I'm not over-thinking this one here.
Pick: Dream -5.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
