As we celebrate the 4th of July, there are two games on tap tonight. Things get started in Minnesota, at 8 p.m. EST, with the Lynx taking on the Connecticut Sun, in what should a fantastic matchup between two of the top defensive teams in the league.
To round out the night, the final contest will kick off at 10 p.m. EST, where the Washington Mystics will face the Las Vegas Aces, who have won all five games since the return of Chelsea Gray.
Let's not waste any more time, and jump right into some of our favorite selections for July 4th. Here are our top WNBA prop bet picks for Thursday's slate of games.
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Thursday’s Best WNBA Player Prop Bets
All WNBA odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Napheesa Collier Over 19.5 Points (-120)
The Minnesota forward gets a tough matchup against Connecticut, who have proven to be quite efficient in keeping opponents off the scoreboard. The Sun are only allowing 73 points per game on 43% shooting from the field, and give up the least amount of three-pointers (5.9) across the WNBA.
Napheesa Collier has not surpassed 19.5 points in two games straight. However, on the season, she has yet to fall short of this total throughout three consecutive contests.
The last time these two teams faced off, Collier finished with 20 points on 56% shooting from the field, while getting to the free throw line on nine occasions.
The first round of this matchup was a dogfight, ending in a one-point overtime win for Connecticut. Minnesota gets a shot at redemption, and if this is to be another slugfest, there's a very good chance Collier clears 19.5 points based on shot volume, usage, as well as minutes on the floor.
Tyasha Harris Over 1.5 Three-Pointers (-115)
Things aren't much easier on the other side of the court, though, Tyasha Harris looks to be in a great spot to knock down at least two three-pointers.
Minnesota is only allowing 6.2 three-pointers on the season. However, teams have made at least seven three-pointers or more over the last three games.
Harris has successfully made at least two baskets from beyond the arc in the last three games, as well as in 6-of-8 contests. She has also attempted at least five three-pointers in four straight games.
If the Connecticut guard can reach or exceed her season average for minutes (30), there should be quite a few open looks from deep. Minnesota's main focus will most likely be directed toward stopping more prominent scoring options on the Sun.
Jackie Young Under 5.5 Assists (-135)
Jackie Young put on a stellar performance in the assists department in the last contest for Las Vegas, finishing with 10 for the game.
This was a bit out of nowhere considering the six-year veteran has fallen short of 5.5 assists in the four games prior. Since the return of Chelsea Gray, Young has taken on a more pronounced scoring role, and the assist numbers have dipped.
Young has only dished out 11 assists over four games before exploding with 10 against the Indiana Fever. In the last five games combined, the Las Vegas guard ranks 58th in assist ratio (18.4) and 33rd in assist percentage (21.2)
Washington allows the third-fewest assists per game (19.5) and is averaging only 5.2 assists to the opponent's top assist option over the last five games.
Young directed her efforts toward scoring in their last meeting on June 29. She poured on 26 points, with only one assist. We are thinking today could be more of the same.
Myisha Hines-Allen Over 5.5 Rebounds (+100)
Stefanie Dolson is currently labeled as questionable with an illness going into Wednesday's contest against Las Vegas.
It seems as if she will miss this game, which blasts the door open for Myisha Hines-Allen to have a monster day on the glass in a positive action spot (+100).
Minutes have been scarce for the Washington forward, who is only averaging 18.1 on the season. However, there's a strong possibility she gets an uptick in playing time if Dolson cannot suit up.
When on the court for 19 minutes or more, Hines-Allen is averaging six rebounds. When the playing time exceeds 23 minutes, the rebound average climbs to 7.3.
Las Vegas concedes over 35 rebounds per game. With such a major rebounding presence possibly off the floor, this looks like a great spot for Hines-Allen to surpass 5.5 rebounds.
A'ja Wilson Under 27.5 Points (-120)
This is the scariest selection of the lot due to the fact the top scorer in the league is going to be facing a Washington team that may be extremely limited in size if Stefanie Dolson is out.
When these two teams matched up on Saturday, A'ja Wilson had her worst shooting performance of the season; only making 4-of-15 attempts for 11 points. Even with the rough outing, the Aces still won by double-digit points.
With the return of Chelsea Gray, there's less dependency on others, such as Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum, to create open looks for teammates. Their focus can be more aligned towards scoring, and both can fill up the box score on any night.
Wilson doesn't have to score 30 points on a nightly basis moving forward. Not to mention she has seen her usage rate dip from a season average of 32.6% to a combined 29.4% over the last five games.
Given the opponent, the current slide in usage, and the opportunity for others to have profound scoring contributions, this could be a spot where Wilson falls just shy of 27.5 points.
Have a happy/safe 4th of July, enjoy the games today, and good luck with your picks!
