Two of the Las Vegas Aces’ three wins have been by three or fewer points, and yet, they have the opportunity to sweep the Phoenix Mercury and win the WNBA Championship on Friday. Below, I explain why I think A'ja Wilson is going to continue her dominance, why one of Jackie Young's props is overvalued and what I expect from Alyssa Thomas with her team's season hanging in the balance. Here are the best WNBA player props & bets for Friday, October 10th.
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Friday’s Best WNBA Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
A'ja Wilson Over 25.5 Points (-110)
Oddsmakers seem to be clinging to the fact that A’ja Wilson averaged 23.4 points per game during the regular season when making this line. While Wilson has two games with fewer than 20 points in the postseason, she's averaging 26.5 points per game and is playing her best at the right time.
After Wednesday night's 34-point performance, Wilson has now scored at least 28 points in four of her last five games. Her worst performance during that span was a 21-point game where she still shot 43.8% from the field.
Wilson scored at least 26 points in two of her three games against the Mercury during the regular season, meaning she's hit this over in four of her six games against them. With the WNBA Championship within reach, I expect the Aces' best player to show up just like she's done all series.
Jackie Young Under 5.5 Assists (-102)
Jackie Young was great in Game 3, scoring 21 points and adding nine assists. The nine assists were the most of her WNBA Finals thus far, and because of that, oddsmakers and bettors have high hopes for her entering Game 4.
At the time of writing, Young to record more than 5.5 assists has a price as high as -130. That's incredibly expensive considering Young didn't record more than five assists in either of the first two games of this series. While Young dished out at least nine assists in each of her final two semi-final games, she played 44 minutes in one of those contests.
This postseason, she's averaging 5.3 assists per game, with seven games of five or fewer assists. Young averaged 5.1 assists per game during the regular season, and with her playing time increased by over four minutes per game during the postseason, she'll certainly have enough opportunities to hit this over. But she's hit the under in two of her three games, and the price for the over just isn't warranted.
Alyssa Thomas Over 9.5 Rebounds (+102)
Alyssa Thomas averaged 8.8 rebounds per game during the regular season, and that success has carried over into the postseason. She's averaging 8.7 boards per game, and she's recorded at least eight in eight of her 10 games.
In this series, Thomas has taken her rebounding to another level, as she has pulled down at least 10 boards in two of the three games. In Game 3, she grabbed a postseason-high 14 boards.
Thomas has played at least 38 minutes in both games where she grabbed at least 10 rebounds. While that's significantly higher than her season average of 31.3 minutes per game, and even higher than her postseason average of 36.4 per game, I don't think she's going to be coming off the court much in Game 4 with her team's season on the line.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.