The Las Vegas Aces will host the Phoenix Mercury in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals on Friday. The Aces won the regular-season series 3-1, but there were impressive performances on both teams in those four games. For Game 1, I'm expecting big performances from Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas, while I anticipate A'ja Wilson struggling on the glass again.
Here are the best WNBA player props & bets for Friday, October 3rd.
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Friday’s Best WNBA Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
A'ja Wilson Under 10.5 Rebounds (+110)
If oddsmakers are going to continue to set this number so high, then I'm going to continue recommending the under. A’ja Wilson is averaging 26 points per game this postseason, and she just ended the series against the Indiana Fever with back-to-back 30-point games. But her rebounding has been disappointing through eight playoff games.
Wilson has grabbed more than nine rebounds just twice all postseason. She's gone four consecutive games with nine or fewer boards, and in Game 5 versus the Fever, she managed only eight rebounds despite playing 41 minutes.
Wilson dominated the glass against the Mercury during the regular season, pulling down at least 13 rebounds in all three contests. But she also had at least 12 rebounds in her final two games of the regular season against the Seattle Storm, yet she grabbed eight or fewer rebounds in two of her three postseason games against them. Wilson will top this number at some point during this series, but for this price, the under is a must-play in Game 1.
Satou Sabally 3+ Made Three-Pointers (+230)
After a rough start to the postseason, Satou Sabally is shooting well over her last three games. She was just 7-of-38 from deep in her first four games of the playoffs. In her last three, she's 10-of-18. She made three three-pointers in Sunday's clinching game, and in Game 2 against the Minnesota Lynx, she went 5-of-11 from deep.
During the regular season, Sabally made at least three three-pointers in two of her four games against the Aces. She attempted at least seven shots from deep in three of her four contests against the Aces. In each of those games, she made multiple threes.
As a team, the Aces were the second-best team at defending the three-point line during the regular season. However, that didn't bother Sabally at all. She's getting hot at the right time, and considering the volume of threes she puts up, I like her to continue her solid shooting in Game 1.
Alyssa Thomas Over 15.5 Points (-125)
Though she was the team's third-leading scorer during the regular season, Alyssa Thomas has led the way for the Mercury in the postseason. She's averaging 18.6 points per game, and she's scored at least 18 points in five consecutive games.
Thomas hasn't scored fewer than 14 points in a postseason game. She also hasn't scored fewer than 14 against the Aces this season. This means that Thomas' floor is high entering this game, and while she hasn't blown this number away against the Aces (her season-high against Las Vegas is just 17), she's going to be close to this number even if she has an off night. The price is a little steep, but Thomas has been a sure thing this postseason.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.