On Tuesday, the Indiana Fever and Las Vegas Aces will meet in Game 5 of the WNBA semi-finals. After losing by double-digits in Games 2 and 3, the Fever beat the Aces 90-83 thanks to huge performances from Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston. What should we expect from key players on both teams with a trip to the WNBA Finals on the line?
Here are the best WNBA player props & bets for Tuesday, September 30th.
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Tuesday’s Best WNBA Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
A'ja Wilson Under 10.5 Rebounds (-118)
Considering A’ja Wilson averaged 10.2 rebounds per game this season, she hasn't had a great series on the glass. She's recorded fewer than 10 rebounds in three out of four games, and yet, for some reason, oddsmakers are still putting this total slightly above her season average.
While Wilson has two 13-rebound games this postseason, the Fever have not been a good matchup for her. She's now played seven games against the Fever, and she's only pulled down more than nine rebounds once. With how well Aliyah Boston has rebounded for the Fever in this series, I don't see any reason to have more faith in Wilson on the glass in Game 5.
Chelsea Gray Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+146)
Chelsea Gray went 3-of-7 from deep in Game 4, her best shooting performance of the series thus far. In the two games prior, Gray attempted only one three-pointer, but she did make that shot. In Game 1, on her home court, Gray went 2-of-5 from deep.
Taking Gray's over is always dangerous because she can go an entire game without attempting a single three, as we saw in Game 2. But the price for this over is severely undervaluing Gray's three-point shooting. She's averaging 1.4 makes from deep per game this postseason, and she has made at least one in six out of her seven contests.
In the regular season, Gray also averaged 1.4 made threes per game. While she only made more than one three-pointer in one of her three games against the Fever during the regular season, I like the value in this price when she's playing an average three-point defense (sixth-best during the regular season) on her home floor.
Natasha Howard Under 8.5 Points (-132)
Natasha Howard is shooting over 52% in this series, but she's only scored more than seven points once in four games. That performance came when she dropped 12 in Game 1. That type of scoring output is what I'm used to from Howard, as she averaged 11.4 points per game during the regular season. That said, in the postseason, she's averaging just 8.4 points per game, and she's scored seven or fewer in four of her seven contests.
During the regular season, Howard actually played pretty well against the Aces. She scored 18 points in 30 minutes at the end of July, and she scored 11 in just 25 minutes earlier in the year. But she also scored just seven the first time the two teams met.
Maybe Howard will get back on track in Game 5, but she's averaging just 6.9 shots per game this postseason, which is 1.3 fewer than the 8.2 she averaged during the regular season. Without much shooting volume, I think Howard will continue her struggles against the Aces.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.