Women’s College Basketball Picks & Predictions: Thursday (3/12)

As we get closer to Selection Sunday, teams are running out of chances to make one last statement to the committee. Of course, they can win their conference tournament and secure a bid before the committee even meets. I'll target a couple of such games in today's NCAA Women's Basketball Bets.

Let's get things started with the Southland Conference Tournament Final between the Stephen F. Austin Ladyjacks and McNeese Cowgirls.

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Thursday’s Best Women’s College Basketball Picks & Predictions

American Conference Championship - Quarterfinal: UTSA Roadrunners vs. South Florida Bulls

For the third time this season, the Roadrunners and Bulls will face off. USF won both games: 70-53 on January 13 and again on Valentine's Day, 69-63.

Yes, it can be difficult to beat a team three times in the same season, but that's most likely true when both teams are considered "good." Finishing the season with a .500 record overall and in conference play doesn't qualify. Does that mean we should overlook UTSA and just bet USF? Of course not!

In the first game, USF led in several key statistics, but the most significant was in three-pointers: South Florida made 10 of 21, while UTSA hit four of 16. But in the second, it wasn't three-pointers that won the day for the Bulls. It was fastbreak points (25-4) and shooting; UTSA took 19 additional shots but made five fewer.

My Pick: UNDER 123.5 at -110 (BetRivers)

This is a difficult one because on one hand, we have a .500 team that struggles on the offensive end, but plays solid defense, and another that has a decent offense but unimpressive defense. The OVER was 14-14 for UTSA this season, and 14-17 for McNeese. I'm a little concerned about USF going off from three-point range and driving the score up. But from what we can see of both teams, the UNDER is the best bet.

Southland Tournament - Final: Stephen F. Austin vs. McNeese

This will be the third time this season the Ladyjacks and Cowgirls will face off. They met earlier in the conference part of their schedules in what ended up being a close, hard-fought game. SFA was dominant from three-point range, hitting nine of 26 shots to two of 19 for McNeese. But the Cowgirls dominated the paint, 38-24.

The second game had a different vibe, as Stephen F. Austin hit 9 of 19 three-pointers while McNeese hit 12 of 23. The Cowgirls were not as dominant in the paint this time, but still won it, 30-24.

McNeese is definitely an up-tempo team that likes to play fast; they took 86 shots to SFA's 57 in the first game and 65 to 45 in the second. If you put up such a significant number of additional shots, it will not matter that the other team has a better effective field goal percentage (SFA-50.6% to 45.2% for McNeese).

My Pick: McNeese -6.5 at -110 (DraftKings)

We have already seen that SFA can't slow McNees down. As long as the Cowgirls are putting up 20 additional shots, the Ladyjacks don't stand a chance.

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