With the 2020 NFL Draft planned to move ahead as planned (mostly), there’s no shortage of props available across the sportsbook landscape for bettors to find action. While it will be weird, moving entirely to video conferencing, the players will still come off the board as they would of should the draft still be held in Las Vegas.
Unless something completely unforeseen happens, LSU product Joe Burrow will be the first pick of the 2020 draft and head to Cincinnati to begin his career. While there’s much more uncertainty about the second quarterback taken, the good folks over at PointsBet think they have a good idea of who it might be.
For their money, Tua Tagovailoa (-500) is the favorite with Justin Herbert (+300) and Jordan Love (+1100) rounding out the top three. Further down the board, Burrow (+2000) has the next best odds to slide, with Jacob Eason (+8000), Jake Fromm (+10000), and Jalen Hurts (+100000) rounding out the top seven.
Let’s take a look at what I see as the best value remaining. And view all of our 2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets here.
Justin Herbert +300
At 6’6″, 236 pounds, Herbert is the largest physical specimen at the position this draft, something NFL teams continue to value year after year despite the mounds of evidence it means very little. Regardless of that, Herbert has arguably a stronger arm than Burrow and what he might lack in accuracy outside of the pocket, he can make up for in athleticism and foot speed outside of the pocket.
It’s been widely suspected and discussed that if Herbert would’ve come out in the 2019 draft, that he would’ve been the first quarterback taken. While he still managed to throw for 3,471 yards, 32 touchdowns, and just six interceptions in his senior season, his struggles to start the season certainly appeared to bite him in the back.
By all accounts, Herbert had a strong combine where he interviewed well and his athleticism was on full display during his on-field workouts. When it comes to his in-game play, like most elite quarterbacks, Herbert is an assassin when given time and if given a good offensive line in year one in the NFL, can instantly make an impact.
The odds on favorite for this bet, Tua Tagovailoa, is still recovering from a vicious hip injury that will sideline him for his entire rookie season. While all health reports are positive, I’m not fully convinced in the “win-now” NFL that every team inside the top 10 is willing to take that unknown risk.
If all things were the same, Tagovailoa is the easy choice long-term, but I like the value Herbert presents for this prop at 3:1 odds to be the second pick taken in April’s draft.