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While the 2020 NFL Draft will no longer be physically held in Las Vegas due to the COVID-19 outbreak, that doesn’t mean you can’t have some prop betting action over the course of the three-day event. While LSU quarterback Joe Burrow is poised to be the first overall pick of the draft, there isn’t as much clarity regarding how the QB draft order will shake out after him. Here is my best bet for who will be the third quarterback selected. Odds courtesy of 888Sports.
Third QB Selected Best Bet
Tua Tagovailoa – Alabama (+225)
There is a real possibility that Tagovailoa turns out to be the cream of the crop in this quarterback class regarding NFL careers when it is all said and done. Unfortunately, Tagovailoa carries with him an injury track record that is a major cause for concern. The gruesome hip injury he suffered a season ago is accompanied by a pair of ankle surgeries, a concussion, and a broken nose.
As the NFL Draft approaches, the chatter and rumors regarding how teams feel about Tagovailoa have only gotten louder. While many have felt all along that he would be the second QB off the board to the Miami Dolphins, there is a buzz that the franchise is not sold. Miami currently holds the fifth pick in the draft, with the Bengals at No. 1 being the only team ahead of them who is in need of a quarterback.
Different reports have surfaced, speculating on the myriad of options the Dolphins have. Some have claimed Miami will pass on Tagovailoa and the QB position altogether with the fifth pick and draft at another position of need. Others have linked another QB, Justin Herbert, as the more likely selection. One report even surfaced that Miami might try to trade Cincinnati for the top pick and land Joe Burrow. While this third speculation isn’t out of the realm of possibilities, it certainly seems unlikely. The Herbert or straight pass scenarios are the more probable outcomes.
Despite Tagovailoa’s rash of injuries suffered during his college career at Alabama, he still managed to find plenty of on-field success. He burst onto the national stage when he took over for Jalen Hurts in the National Championship game of the 2017 season, leading the Crimson Tide to the title. After winning the starting job heading into the 2018 season, Tagovailoa proved coach Nick Saban’s decision correct. His absurd stat lines, which are highlighted by a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 76-9 over the 2018 and shortened 2019 seasons combined are depicted below.
Scouts and draft pundits rave about Tagovailoa’s arm talent, feathery touch, and quick trigger release. He plays with quick feet in the pocket, allowing him to set-up and reset quickly when under duress. His mobility affords him the option to escape when plays break down and he is credited with fitting the mold of the new-age dual-threat quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray. From a weakness standpoint, in addition to the durability concerns, there are some knocks against his timing and a constricted throwing motion which limits the zip he can generate on his passes.
While there is no denying the talent and football acumen that Tagovailoa possesses, when it comes to finding the value bet for the third QB drafted, it is worth using the perceived injury concerns to your advantage. +225 affords great value, making him my best bet pick.
Other Names to Know
Justin Herbert, Oregon | -200
The odds-on favorite to be the third QB drafted, Herbert would likely be the one to leapfrog Tagovailoa as the second signal-caller taken. Herbert impressed teams throughout the NFL Combine process and is noted for his on-field smarts and ability to dissect opposing defenses. He could stand to play with more fluidity as compared to the mechanical, robotic tendencies he displayed in college.
Jordan Love, Utah State | +350
Love possesses the biggest arm of any top QB prospect in this year’s class. He throws the deep ball with both strength and touch, and he can uncork a compact spiral into a tight window over the middle as well. He did take a step back in production last season compared to 2018, but it is worth noting that much of the Utah State offense he played in turned over.