Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including How to Choose a Sportsbook — or head to more advanced strategy — like Which Sports Are Most Profitable to Bet? — to learn more.
One of the most common NFL Draft props that we’re seeing on the board is over-unders for specific players. If you have a good read on what the teams like and what the mock drafts are saying, you can probably make some money with these.
We’ve been going through a number of individual players and examining the odds and in this article, we’re going to take a look at Derrick Brown. His over-under is set at 9.5 at 888Sport, so we’ll make the case for both ways for him and see which makes the most sense. You can also view all of our 2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets here.
Derrick Brown Draft Position At 888Sport
Scenario No. 1: Brown Is Taken In The Top Nine
If Derrick Brown is to be picked in the top nine of the draft, there are three teams which make sense as landing spots for him. It won’t be Cincinnati at No. 1, or Washington at No. 2. Those teams will take the superstar prospects in the draft, Joe Burrow for the Bengals and Chase Young for the Redskins. The intrigue in the draft starts at No. 3, but the Detroit Lions need help in the secondary much more than on the defensive line. Their choice is most likely going to come down to linebacker-hybrid Isaiah Simmons of Clemson and cornerback Jeff Okudah of Ohio State. The New York Giants, at No. 4, are likely to pick offensive lineman Tristan Wirfs of Iowa to give quarterback Daniel Jones a big protector up front, or Simmons, who they are rumored to be in love with.
Brown might be picked at No. 5 by the Miami Dolphins, but this would mean Miami would pass on Tua Tagovailoa. Miami seems to love Tua, but the Dolphins could conceivably think that Tua will still be on the draft board at No. 18 later in the first round. If Miami does pass on Brown, the Los Angeles Chargers will not pick him at No. 6, since the Chargers need offense more than defense.
Carolina, at No. 7, could pick Brown. The Panthers watched linebacker Luke Kuechly retire after the 2019 season, meaning they need a high-impact player on defense. Brown is not a linebacker, but he could still fill a big need by stuffing the run and being an active presence who could command double-teams and cave the pocket. If Brown isn’t picked by the Panthers, the Arizona Cardinals – at No. 8 – could use help on defense as could the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 9. Remember, they just traded Calais Campbell to the Baltimore Ravens and need another quality defensive player.
Scenario No. 2: Brown Falls To No. 10 Or Later
The Cleveland Browns, at No. 10, need help on offense more than defense, so Brown likely won’t go to the Browns. The New York Jets at No. 11 are much more set on defense than offense, so they won’t pick Brown. The Raiders at 12 could take him since their pass rush and their front four both need a boost. The San Francisco 49ers need a receiver more than they need a defensive lineman, so they would look elsewhere at No. 13. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 14 and the Denver Broncos at 15 have strong defensive lines. They don’t need Brown. If Brown is still on the board at 16, the Atlanta Falcons – who have struggled with their defensive line in recent seasons – should be all over him. He should not fall lower than 16. If he does, however, the Dolphins are still there at 18, and the Raiders are at 19. If Miami and Vegas passed on Brown once, they won’t pass on him twice. Brown should definitely be a top-20 pick.
Bet The Under
Brown is a bit of a tricky one to handicap in some regards but overall, most mock drafts have him going in the Top 9. Of the five latest mock drafts that I checked, all had him going ninth or sooner. While he’s not the sexiest name on the board, he’s probably the best defensive player not named Chase Young. I don’t see him falling past Jacksonville, but teams like Carolina and Arizona could also scoop him up.