Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including How to Choose a Sportsbook — or head to more advanced strategy — like Which Sports Are Most Profitable to Bet? — to learn more.
With the sports scene on pause for the time being, sportsbooks have poured out an absolute ton of betting lines for the NFL Draft. From position totals to first-drafted props to player props, there are more draft props on the board than I’ve ever seen. This has now become the next major sports betting event.
One of the props on the board focuses on which defensive lineman will be drafted first overall. Like with the quarterback position, the assumption is that it will be a certain player but can anyone else surprise? (Odds courtesy of 888Sport)
Chase Young (-10000)
As you can see here, the odds on Chase Young are about as short as can be. A $10,000 bet on Young being the first lineman drafted would only return you back $100. Well, a 1% return on your investment isn’t too bad; if you could do that every day, you’d make 365% per year. The issue here is the risk.
Overall, I don’t see any other scenario other than Young being the first lineman drafted. We know that he’s a generational talent and that had Joe Burrow now had his incredible 2019 campaign, Young would be the first pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Before Burrow fully emerged, the talk was that Tua Tagovailoa would be the first pick in the draft and many people felt the comparison was similar to Kyler Murray and Nick Bosa in the 2019 NFL Draft. As of now, Bosa is the better player, so some feel the Cardinals may have made a mistake.
Young is that type of a player – if not better – and he is going to be a dominant force on defensive lines for years to come. The other players in this draft simply aren’t in the same conversation.
Derrick Brown (+1000) and Javon Kinlaw (+1600)
There are only two other players on the board with odds inside of 65/1 and they are Derrick Brown and Javon Kinlaw. There’s no question that both of these players will be first-round picks and they’ll very likely be taken in the Top 10. The question is how high will they go?
The main difference between Brown and Kinlaw versus Young is that the former two are interior defensive lineman. While there are guys like Aaron Donald on the inside that can wreck games and be dominant forces, we typically see edge rushers go higher in the draft.
Most mock drafts have Brown and Kinlaw both going somewhere in the range from 7-12. We’re going to see teams like the Carolina Panthers at No. 7 who need help on the inside and the Arizona Cardinals at No. 8 and Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 9 who could address defensive line too. However, we have seen some mock drafts – like the latest CBS Mock Draft – where Kinlaw is taken at the back end of the first round and Brown is taken 10th. That gives you an idea in which range they’re expected to go.
As for Young, he’s projected to go in the Top 5 – at worst – in almost every draft. He’ll be the first lineman taken in the 2020 NFL Draft.