After a long and seemingly never-ending off-season, the 2022-23 PGA TOUR season is set to get underway this week at the Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course) in Napa, California. This track has hosted the Fortinet Championship every year since 2014.
A Robert Trent Jones Jr design, the North Course is known for undulating fairways that weave through trees and end with challenging greens. The North Course is a par 72, 7,123-yard track that saw an average score of 71.04 last season, which was an event won by California native Max Homa.
Looking at the six previous winners of this tournament, the metric that stands out the most in predicting success is SG: Tee-to-Green. This trend makes sense considering the difficulty of the greens, so saving strokes on the way there is essential for success.
Below, I will give my best longshot to win the 2022 Fortinet Championship.
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This play is 0.2u, or 0.2% of your betting bankroll. Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Chris Kirk (+5000): 0.2u
At 50/1, Chris Kirk is worth taking a flyer on to capture his fifth career PGA TOUR victory. An incredible iron player, Kirk finished 20th on TOUR last season in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Ending the season in terrific form, Kirk made eight of his last nine cuts. Over that stretch, he posted four T20 finishes, including his T5 finish at the PGA Championship.
In a watered-down field, Kirk’s number is way too long considering he will be one of the better guys teeing It up this week. Additionally, he has scored well at this track before.
Kirk has made the cut in three of his four appearances at Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course), including his eighth-place finish in 2016. I believe part of the reason that we are getting such a long number on Kirk is that he has not played here since 2018.
However, 2020 winner Stewart Cink was in a similar position as he had not played here since 2016. If Kirk picks up right where he left off last season, then he is absolutely worthy of a small wager at 50/1.
Other Outright Winner Plays:
- Max Homa (10/1): 0.4u
- Tom Hoge (50/1): 0.3u
- Matthew NeSmith (130/1): 0.1u
Best of luck!
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