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2022 NFL Draft: Matthew Freedman’s Draft Position Props

by April 21, 2022
Aidan Hutchison

The NFL draft is rapidly approaching, so I should make some more bets on the event.

Here’s a full rundown of my draft content to date.

Mock Drafts

I also have a full three-round edition of my most recent mock as well as prospect rankings for my top 100.

Over the past three years, I’m the No. 3 mocker in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest. (I’ve manually gone through and added up all the points earned, as I have nothing better to do with my time.)

To see all the bets I’ve made, check out my NFL Draft prop card.

You can see the current odds for all the draft props in the market on our BettingPros odds page.

As I make more bets, I will post them first in our FREE BettingPros Discord and then write up my bets for publication via article. To get my draft bets as quickly as possible, join our Discord.

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Historically, I’ve done well betting on the draft.

  • 2019: 54-29 (+17.7 units)
  • 2020: 124-88 (+26.2 units)
  • 2021: 158-140 (+32.0 units)

Maybe that trend will continue this year. In this piece, I present all the draft position player props that I’ve bet for the draft (as of April 21).

All odds are from the following sportsbooks.

2022 NFL Draft: Draft Position Player Props

Derek Stingley: Under 12.5

  • Line: -105
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 6
  • Units: 1.05
  • Notes: With his strong pro day (4.37-second 40-yard dash at 6’0″ and 188 pounds), Stingley has a good chance to go early in Round 1. The Vikings in particular are a cornerback-needy team that could take him at No. 12.

Chris Olave: Under 21.5

  • Line: -130
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 6
  • Units: 1.3
  • Notes: Olave could realistically go as high as No. 11 to the Commanders, but he’s unlikely to fall past the Packers at No. 22. This line is skewed within his realistic range of outcomes.

Charles Cross: Over 7.5

  • Line: -130
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 1.3
  • Notes: Cross has a mean of 9.6 in my sharp index and is over 7.5 in 70% of the mocks. At Grinding the Mocks he has an expected draft position of 10. I have Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu far ahead of Cross as a tackle prospect and find it unlikely that he goes any higher than No. 7.

Trent McDuffie: Over 18.5

  • Line: +115
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: McDuffie has a mean of 21.5 in my sharp index and is over 18.5 in 65% of the mocks. He’s ranked No. 21 on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board. I doubt he goes higher than No. 18 to the Eagles.

Chris Olave: Over 17.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: With the Olave under 21.5 bet I made on Apr. 6, I’m now looking to middle his draft position prop. The Eagles and Saints are strong candidates to take him at Nos. 18-19.

Ikem Ekwonu: Over 3.5

  • Line: +106
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Ekwonu has a mean of 5.4 in my sharp index, which perfectly matches his Grinding the Mocks expected draft position. He is over 3.5 in 80% of my surveyed mocks.

Kayvon Thibodeaux: Under 5.5

  • Line: +110
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Thibodeaux has a mean of 5.0 and median of 4.0 in my sharp index. He’s 3.9 in Grinding the Mocks expected draft position and No. 3 on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board. He’s under 5.5 in 70% of my surveyed mocks. He could slide in the draft, but I think the likeliest outcome is that he goes in the top five.

Devin Lloyd: Over 18.5

  • Line: +100
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 12
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Lloyd is a strong bet to be the first linebacker selected (-450 consensus), but off-ball linebackers have been increasingly devalued in today’s game. Lloyd has a mean of 21.8 in my sharp index and Grinding the Mocks expected draft position of 20.2. I have him going No. 17 to the Chargers in my most recent mock, but that’s one of the picks with which I’m most dissatisfied, as there’s no great landing spot for him in the middle of Round 1.

George Karlaftis: Over 16.5

  • Line: -130
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 12
  • Units: 1.3
  • Notes: There seems to be a sizable disconnect between how Karlaftis is regarded by evaluators and mock drafters. He’s No. 18 on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board, but he has a median of 21.5 in my sharp index — and that doesn’t take into account that he falls out of Round 1 entirely in 10% of the mocks I’ve surveyed.

Andrew Booth: Under 26.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 12
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: Booth is No. 24 on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board, and he has a 24.3 expected draft position on Grinding the Mocks.

Aidan Hutchinson: Over 1.5

  • Line: +165
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: This line is +124 at FanDuel, so I’m getting line-shopping value, and I expect this line to continue to move towards +100.

Travon Walker: Under 3.5

  • Line: -200
  • Sportsbook: BetMGM
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Even if Walker doesn’t go No. 1, he has an excellent chance of going shortly after that. He’s a top-three selection in 80% of my indexed sharp mocks.

Ikem Ekwonu: Over 3.5

  • Line: +100
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: This is a no-risk bet made in conjunction with my other Ekwonu wager today (under 3.5, +115 at Caesars; see below), although I do like the over in a vacuum, given that Ekwonu is over 3.5 in 72% of my sharp index.

Ikem Ekwonu: Under 3.5

  • Line: +115
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: This is a no-risk bet made in conjunction with my other Ekwonu wager today (over 3.5, +100 at FOXBet; see above). If the over hits, I win nothing. If the under hits, I profit +0.15 units.

Ahmad Gardner: Under 7.5

  • Line: -149
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.49
  • Notes: Gardner is the consensus No. 1 corner in the class (-500 to be the top cornerback selected), and the Texans (No. 3), Jets (No. 4) and Giants (Nos. 5 & 7) could all conceivably take him. Gardner is under 7.5 in 88% of my sharp index. This number should really be 6.5.

Jermaine Johnson: Over 9.5

  • Line: +124
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: If this were 10.5, that would be more accurate. Johnson could go to the Falcons (No. 8) and Seahawks (No. 9), but he’s unlikely to go any earlier than that, and the Jets (No. 10) and Texans (No. 13) are popular landing spots for him. He has a mean of 11.3 and median of 13 in my sharp index.

Garrett Wilson: Under 10.5

  • Line: -138
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.38
  • Notes: Wilson, Jameson Williams and Drake London all have a case to be the No. 1 receiver drafted, but Wilson (+125) is the consensus favorite, and we could easily see the Jets (Nos. 4 & 10) and Falcons (No. 8) select two receivers in the top 10.

Kyle Hamilton: Over 10.5

  • Line: +105
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Hamilton’s slide down the draft board is real. He’s now over 10.5 in 84% of my sharp index.

Derek Stingley: Over 10.5

  • Line: +100
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: With the Stingley under 12.5 bet I made on Apr. 6, I’m now looking to middle his draft position prop. His mean is 11.4 and median is 12 in the sharp index. The Vikings (No. 12) are a popular mock spot for him, but even the Commanders (No. 11) could select him with a best-player-available approach.

Kenny Pickett: Over 12.5

  • Line: -120
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.2
  • Notes: Increasingly, I believe the Panthers will go with a veteran quarterback (Sam Darnold or maybe Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo after a trade), which means there may be no primary landing spot for a passer in the top 12. On top of that, even if the Panthers do take a quarterback he might be Malik Willis instead of Pickett, who is over 12.5 in 64% of the sharp index.

Jordan Davis: Over 14.5

  • Line: -114
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.14
  • Notes: Davis might be the most athletic prospect to enter the NFL ever, but defensive tackles are undervalued in the NFL, and No. 14 (Ravens) is his realistic ceiling. Davis is over 14.5 in 68% of my sharp index. I think 16.5 would be a better number.

Treylon Burks: Under 23.5

  • Line: +100
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Let’s assume that Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams and Drake London are all drafted in the top 12 ahead of Burks. Even if that happens, he could still find realistic landing spots with the Eagles (Nos. 15 & 18), Saints (Nos. 16 & 19), Chargers (No. 17), Patriots (No. 21), Packers (No. 22) and Cardinals (No. 23) to cash this ticket. Burks is under 23.5 in 76% of the sharp index.

Tyler Linderbaum: Over 27.5

  • Line: -105
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.05
  • Notes: Linderbaum is one of the best overall players in this class, but interior lineman are devalued in today’s game, and there are few teams that actually need a center in the top 27. Linderbaum might fall out of Round 1 entirely, and within the top 32 the Bengals are his most popular landing spot at No. 31.

Nakobe Dean: Over 28.5

  • Line: -120
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.2
  • Notes: Like interior lineman, off-ball linebacker is an oft-overlooked position, and Dean’s small-ish size (5-11, 229 pounds) could cause him to slide down the draft board. Dean goes over 28.5 in 64% of the sharp index.

Boye Mafe: Over 29.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: Mafe has rapidly risen up the draft board, especially since the combine, but he is still going in Round 1 in just 44% of the sharp index.

Arnold Ebiketie: Over 31.5

  • Line: -120
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.2
  • Notes: Ebiketie is in Round 1 of just 28% of the sharp mocks I’ve surveyed, and I have going No. 36 to the Giants in my most recent mock.

Jahan Dotson: Over 32.5

  • Line: +115
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: The median number of wide receivers drafted in Round 1 of the sharp index is six, so we’re likely to see another receiver drafted after Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, Drake London, Treylon Burks and Chris Olave — but that guy doesn’t need to be Dotson. He could also be Christian Watson or George Pickens. Dotson is in Round 1 of just 40% of the sharp index.

Kyler Gordon: Over 33.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: Gordon has a 37.9 expected draft position at Grinding the Mocks.

George Pickens: Over 36.5

  • Line: -110
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.1
  • Notes: Pickens is No. 48 in the consensus big board at NFL Mock Draft Database.

John Metchie: Over 59.5

  • Line: -114
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.14
  • Notes: Metchie has a 76.0 expected draft position at Grinding the Mocks, and I have him going at No. 74 to the Falcons in my most recent mock.

Skyy Moore: Over 34.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 21
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: I love Moore, but his Grinding the Mocks expected draft position (46.2) and NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board rank (49) compel me to bet the over.

Logan Hall: Over 36.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 21
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: Famous last words, but this one isn’t anywhere close. Hall has appeared in exactly zero mocks in my sharp index. A guy with that kind of Round 1 disinterest is highly unlikely to go in the first four picks of Round 2, especially when other, higher-rated defensive lineman (Arnold Ebiketie, Travis Jones) have a good chance of still being on the board at the beginning of Day 2. His expected draft position at Grinding the Mocks is 51.8.

Bernhard Raimann: Over 37.5

  • Line: +100
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 22
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Raimann is likely to slip down the draft board because he’s old (25 in September) and raw (he didn’t start playing football in Austria until he was a teenager, and he transitioned from tight end to tackle just two years ago). He has an expected draft position of 39.5 at Grinding the Mocks — and, remember, that number doesn’t include all the mocks he’s not in.

Quay Walker: Over 40.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 22
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: Off-ball linebacker isn’t a priority for most teams picking in the top eight of Round 2, and Walker is No. 41 in my most recent mock draft, 45.5 in Grinding the Mocks expected draft position, 52 on Arif Hasan’s consensus big board and 54 on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board.

Sam Howell: Over 45.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 22
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: Howell is a distant fifth in the market to be the No. 1 quarterback selected (+5000 consensus odds), and I’ve seen him drafted in Round 1 in just one sharp mock … and his inclusion in said mock has made me question the overall sharpness of that expert. Anyway. Howell has almost no hype, and he hits the over in my most recent mock (58) as well as those of Charlie Campbell (58) and Walter Cherepinsky (52), both of whom finished in the top five last year in our NFL mock draft contest.

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