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2023 Australian Open Men’s Final Picks & Predictions

by January 27, 2023
2023 Australian Open Men's Preview & Best Bets

The backdrop is set for what is to be a historic Australian Open Men’s Final. If Novak Djokovic wins, he will extend his record to ten Australian Open titles (no player has more than six) and tie him with Rafael Nadal for the most Men’s Grand Slam titles of all-time (22). In addition, a win would also be his 28th consecutive Australian Open victory dating back to 2019, putting him two behind Roy Emerson, who had 30 straight wins from 1963-68.

Stefanos Tsitsipas became the first Greek to advance to an Australian Open final. A win would be his first Grand Slam title in his second major finals appearance, as he lost in five sets to Djokovic in the 2021 French Open finals. And whoever wins this match will unseat Carlos Alcaraz as the No. 1 ranked player in the world on Monday.

Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the 2023 Men’s Australian Open finals.

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2023 Men’s Australian Open Final Odds

(odds via DraftKings)

Moneyline: Djokovic (-475), Tsitsipas (+350)

Spread: Djokovic -5.5 games (-130), Tsitsipas +5.5 games (+105)

Total: Over 37.5 games (-120), Under 37.5 games (-105)


2023 Men’s Australian Open Final Picks & Predictions

Novak Djokovic vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction

Nobody has been able to beat Djokovic this late at an Australian Open, as he is 9-0 in his career in the finals. He deserves to be the overwhelming favorite that he is, considering this is his 33rd major finals appearance (21-11 career record) to Tsitsipas’s second, as he will undoubtedly be able to handle his emotions better. However, instead of backing his steep moneyline odds or even his -120 odds to win in straight sets, we are giving Tsitsipas a little more respect in this match.

Tsitsipas is just 2-10 in his career against Djokovic but has won at least one set off him in six of their 12 head-to-head meetings (including pushing Djokovic to five sets in both Grand Slam matchups). Djokovic admittedly had tired legs in his last match against Tommy Paul and commented on how punishing and physical a match it was. Djokovic looked unsettled early but overcame 24 unforced errors (compared to just 12 winners) to take the first set 7-5.

Still, Paul was the second-lowest-ranked player Djokovic had ever faced in a major semifinal, and Paul only had four tour-level wins against top-five players. Conversely, Tsitsipas is a much more seasoned player and is rolling with ten consecutive victories in 2023 (he lost just six sets in that span). Tsitsipas is 6-3 in his last nine matches against top 20 players at the Australian Open and is 11-7 against top 20 players in his career at majors.

Tsitsipas had 26 straight service holds before being broken in the first set by Khachanov, and he allowed just four looks at break-point in total. His serve and consistent ground game will push Djokovic as no opponent has to this point in the tournament.

Djokovic is on a 40-match winning streak in all Australian tournaments, so his victory is not in question. However, we are slightly going against the trend that Tsitsipas has failed to cover the game spread in his last seven ATP finals, while the Under is 7-1 in Djokovic’s previous eight matches at the Australian Open.

Pick: Djokovic to beat Tsitsipas 3 Sets to 1 (+300 on DraftKings)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01