The 2023 French Open Women’s Final, on paper, looks like a mismatch, as the world No. 1 Iga Swiatek looks for her third win at Roland Garros in four years while unseeded Karolina Muchova is appearing in her first Grand Slam final. Will Swiatek cruise to a tenth consecutive straight-set victory and 14th consecutive victory overall at the French Open, or will Muchova deny Swiatek the right to becoming the first woman since Justine Henin’s three-peat from 2005-07 to win consecutive Roland Garros titles?
Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the 2023 Women’s French Open finals.
2023 Women’s French Open Final Picks & Predictions
(odds via DraftKings)
Karolina Muchova vs. Iga Swiatek Prediction
Swiatek is deserving of her massive -900 moneyline odds, given her dominance on clay over the last half-century. Swiatek is on her way to becoming viewed as dominant at Roland Garros as Rafael Nadal is on the men’s side. Per OptaAce, only Margaret Court (at the French Open and Australian Open) has a higher winning percentage at a single Grand Slam event than Swiatek’s 93.1% winning percentage at Roland Garros. Yet while this is Swiatek’s ninth clay-court WTA final, she has lost two of her previous eight, with the last two going Over the projected games total.
Much like Swiatek’s dominant 2020 French Open run, she has lost the same amount of games (23) through six matches, not dropping a set in the process. But for the advantage that Swiatek has in experience, Muchova gained a lifetime’s worth of experience in her last match, rallying from match point and 2-5 down in the third set to beat the world’s No. 2-ranked player. There is no denying Swiatek’s ability and relentlessness on clay. Still, no player that wins 20 of the final 24 points against a player the caliber of Aryna Sabalenka, as Muchova did in the semifinals, should be considered a pushover. Muchova has won 66.7% of her Grand Slam matches against top-10 opponents and would likely be a top-10 player herself if injuries did not substantially disrupt her career.
Muchova will likely push Swiatek in this match, and a 7-5 or 7-6 set would do wonders to cover the game spread. Lastly, Tumaini Carayol’s tweet detailing Muchova’s success against top-3 players tells you everything you need to know about why we are backing her to cover +5.5 games at plus-money odds.
Karolina Muchova vs top 3:
Roland Garros 2023 d. #2 Aryna Sabalenka 7-6 6-7 7-5
Roland Garros 2022 d. #3 Maria Sakkari 7-6 7-6
Madrid 2021 d. #2 Naomi Osaka 6-4 3-6 6-1
Australian Open 2021 d. #1 Ash Barty 1-6 6-3 6-2
Wimbledon 2019 d. #3 Karolina Pliskova 4-6 7-5 13-115-0.
— Tumaini Carayol (@tumcarayol) June 8, 2023
Pick: Muchova +5.5 games (+120 on DraftKings)
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