2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Strategy: Top Seed Statistics to Know

March Madness is finally upon us! Today we will dive into statistics correlating to tournament success and tournament failure among the top seeds (1-4).

We will break down each seed and which statistics correlate to those seeds. I have compiled a MasterSheet that has 27 advanced statistics from the KenPom database for every single tournament team in the last 20 years.

The percentages will be listed where a team is eliminated. Certain levels of the tournament are considered successful for some top seeds and not for others. For example, a (1) seed being eliminated in the Elite 8 is underachieving, vs. a (3) seed making the Elite 8 would be considered successful.

Remember, these statistics are comparing seeds from other tournaments with their counterparts. Saying a (1) seed is bottom 10 in adjusted offense means they are bottom 10 compared to the other 80 (1) seeds. Let's dive in!

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2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Strategy: Top Seed Statistics for Success

1 Seeds

Historical advance rate of (1) seeds:

30 out of 80 – Final 4 (40%)
23 out of 80 – Elite 8 (28%)
14 out of 80 – Sweet 16 (17%)
13 out of 80 – Eliminated Early (15%)

Here is a list of statistics that correlate to underachievement for 1 seeds:

Bot 10 AdjOff under 114.59/ Without a Top 10 Def 86.83 (7 Teams)

0 Final 4s
3 Elite 8
2 Sweet 16
2 Eliminated Early

Def OR% over 34.50% (9 Teams)

1 Final 4
4 Elite 8s
4 Sweet 16s

Def FT Rate over 34.10 (5 Teams)

1 Final 4
3 Elite 8s
1 Sweet 16

TO Margin/Combo under 2.50 (5 Teams)

1 Final 4
1 Elite 8
2 Sweet 16
1 Eliminated Early

1st Round Conference Loss (6 teams)

1 Final 4
3 Elite 8
2 Eliminated Early

Top 20 Tempo/ Top 20 3pt Rate (2 teams)

1 Elite 8
1 Sweet 16

Breakdown (34 teams) with at least one of these categories

4 Final 4 teams (11%)
15 Elite 8 teams (44%)
10 Sweet 16 teams (29%)
5 Eliminated Early (14%)

As you can see, any team that falls into any of these categories is four times less likely to make the Final 4 vs. the historical advance rate and have a considerably higher chance of being eliminated at the Sweet 16 level. We will dive into this year’s (1) seeds in the next article.

Below are teams that do not fall into any of those categories. As shown, the Final 4 advancement rate is significantly higher without any of those red flags. One team of those 34 teams actually won a National Championship (Louisville 2013), but they also had overachieving statistics too.

Teams without any of these outliers (46 Teams)

26 Final 4 teams (56%)
8 Elite 8 teams (17%)
4 Sweet 16 teams (8%)
8 Eliminated Early teams (17%)

Here are some statistics that have produced an incredible success rate for (1) Seeds:

Top 10 Turnover/Reb Margin Combo (10 Teams)

8 Final 4
1 Sweet 16
1 Eliminated Early

Top 10 AdjOE (8 Teams)

6 Final 4s
1 Elite 8
1 Eliminated Early

Top 10 AdjEM (5 Teams)

3 Final 4s
2 Sweet 16s

Breakdown (23 teams)

17 Final 4s (73%)
1 Elite 8 (4%)
3 Sweet 16s (12%)
2 Eliminated Early (8%)

These three categories have produced a whopping 73% Final 4 rate. On top of that, nine of those 17 Final 4 teams have won National Championships. That is an incredible success rate. Finding (1) seeds that fit this mold almost guarantee a Final 4 appearance.

2 Seeds

Time to move on to underachieving statistics for (2) seeds. Below you will see the historical advancement rate for the KenPom Era:

18 out of 80 – Final 4 (23%)
18 out of 80 – Elite 8 (23%)
13 out of 80 – Sweet 16 (16%)
25 out of 80 – Second Round (31%)
6 out of 80 First Round (7%)

Let’s dive into statistics identifying tournament failure in (2) seeds.

Bot 25 AdjDef over 94.57 (25 Teams)

2 Final 4
5 Elite 8
4 Sweet 16
11 Second Round
3 First Round

Top 20 Off FT Rate above 41.29 (10 Teams)

0 Final 4
4 Elite 8
2 Sweet 16
4 Second Round

Opponent Assist Rate over 56.3% (3 Teams)

1 Elite 8
1 Second Round
1 First Round

Breakdown (38 Teams):

2 Final 4 teams (5%)
10 Elite 8 teams (26%)
6 Sweet 16 Teams (15%)
16 Second Round teams (42%)
4 First Round teams (10%)

Teams without these statistics (42 teams)

16 Final 4 Teams (38%)
8 Elite 8 Teams (19%)
7 Sweet 16 teams (16%)
9 Second Round teams (21%)
2 First Round teams (4%)

The two biggest differences are early exits and Final 4 appearances. Half of these (2) seeds with these red flags have been eliminated in the first weekend vs. their counterparts at only (25%). This is a tremendous difference. Zero (2) seeds with any of these red flags have won a National Championship.

3 Seeds

3 seed historical advancement rate

9 out of 80 – Final 4 (11%)
13 out of 80 – Elite 8 (16%)
25 out of 80 – Sweet 16 (31%)
24 out of 80 – Second Round (30%)
9 out of 80 – First Round (11%)

Many people do not realize that a (3) seed has essentially the same chance of being eliminated in the second round vs. making the Sweet 16. Making the Elite 8 is an accomplishment for (3) seeds, and that's pretty much where their success is measured.

Here are some statistics that correlate to underachieving (3) seeds:

Bottom 15 AdjEM (15 Teams)

0 Final 4s
2 Elite 8s
3 Swet 16s
9 Second Round
1 First Round

Bottom 10 AdjOE (5 Teams)

0 Final 4s
0 Elite 8s
1 Sweet 16
3 Second Round
1 First Round

Top 20 Off Assist Rate (14 teams)

1 Final 4
1 Elite 8
6 Sweet 16s
5 Second Round
1 1st Round

Breakdown of teams (34 teams)

1 Final 4 (2%)
3 Elite 8s (8%)
10 Sweet 16s (29%)
17 Second Round (50%)
3 First Round (8%)

3 (seeds) without these statistics (46 teams)

8 Final 4s (17%)
10 Elite 8 (21%)
15 Sweet 16 (32%)
7 Second Round (15%)
6 First Round (13%)

As shown, the difference lies in the extremes. (3) seeds with these red flags are eliminated 58% of the time within the first weekend vs. 28% of (3) seeds that do not share the same characteristics. The only (3) seed to make the Final 4 was Florida (2006), who also won the National Championship in arguably the craziest tournament ever. Not to mention they were loaded with NBA talent, including Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah, Taurean Green and Al Horford.

4 Seeds

(4) Seed Historical Advancement Rate

6 out of 80 – FInal 4 (8%)
5 out of 80 – Elite 8 (6.25%)
27 out of 80 – Sweet 16 (33%)
25 out of 80 – Second Round (31%)
17 out of 80 – First Round (21%)

Let's look at several statistics that lead to overachievement for (4) seeds:

Top 20 Off (20 teams)

1 Final 4
1 Elite 8
12 Sweet 16
4 Second Round
2 First Round

Top 20 AdjEM (13 teams)

2 Final 4s
1 Elite 8
5 Sweet 16s
4 Second Round
1 1st Round

Top 20 Def 2pt% (13 teams)

3 Final 4s
1 Elite 8
3 Sweet 16
3 Second Round
3 First Round

Breakdown (46 Teams)

6 Final 4s (13%)
3 Elite 8s (7%)
20 Sweet 16s (43%)
11 Second Round (23%)
6 First Round (13%)

Teams without these statistics (34 teams)

0 Final 4s (0%)
2 Elite 8s (6%)
7 Sweet 16 (21%)
14 Second Round (41%)
11 First Round (32%)

Making a Sweet 16 for a (4) seed is considered a success. (4) seeds that do not fall into these overachieving categories, a whopping 72%, are eliminated in the first weekend. That is a significant difference as overachieving (4) seeds are eliminated at only a 36% rate in the first weekend. Zero (4) seeds have won a championship in the KenPom era.

Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced strategies - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.

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If you have any questions about the data or process, contact me @goldendomer622 on Twitter and tune in for our upcoming articles, breaking down the top seeds, Cinderellas, and value bets for the Final 4 and National Champion.