2023 NFL Draft: Best Bets, Picks & Predictions

Tonight is the night. The 2023 NFL Draft kicks off Thursday! What better way to enjoy the action than spicing things up with a few bets? We’re here to help, as we have everything 2023 NFL Draft covered. Of course, that includes our best bets, picks, and predictions for the big event! Here are a few of our top picks for the 2023 NFL Draft courtesy of Matthew Freedman. Check out Freedman’s full 2023 NFL Draft prop bet card here.

Check out Kent Weyrauch's 2023 NFL Draft Prop Bet Card >>

Best 2023 NFL Draft Bets

First Pick for Eagles: Defense

Line: +155
Sportsbook: FOXBet
Date: Apr. 23
Units: 1
Notes: The Eagles could take an offensive lineman or maybe RB Bijan Robinson with the first pick in Round 1 (Robinson is more likely if they trade down), but both defensive tackle and edge rusher are priorities for the Eagles, who like to build depth along the defensive line. And there’s also a chance they could take a cornerback. The Eagles go with a defensive player in 76% of sharp mocks.

Michael Mayer: Under 21.5

Line: +150
Sportsbook: bet365
Date: Apr. 23
Units: 1
Notes: Mayer’s over/under is 23.5 at Caesars juiced -120 to the under, but if we move down two spots we can gain 70 cents of value without (in my opinion) giving up much in return: Picks Nos. 22-23 belong to the Ravens and Vikings, both of whom are set at tight end, so Mayer’s real odds of going before 21.5 are roughly the same as the odds for going before 23.5, and I think those odds are about 50/50. In sharp mocks, Mayer’s mean is 21.4 and his median is 21. He often is mocked to the Cowboys at No. 26, but he could easily go off the board before then to the Packers, Lions and Chargers (Nos. 15, 18 & 21).

Bryce Young: No. 1 Overall

Line: -1000
Sportsbook: FanDuel, Caesars
Date: Apr. 26
Units: 1, 1
Notes: I’m putting two units total here on Young to go No. 1. He was -2000 earlier, but the market moved toward QB Will Levis because of a random Reddit post. Ridiculous.

Hendon Hooker: To Eagles, 49ers, Bills & Chiefs

Line: +30000
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Date: Apr. 27
Units: 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25
Notes: I have Hooker at No. 50 on my big board. He’s No. 46 on Daniel Jeremiah’s big board. I don’t believe he’s going on Day 1. He feels like a guy that a team will grab in Round 2 — and the odds for any guy after Round 1 to go to any team in particular shouldn’t be all that far away from 3.125% (one divided by 32). At that point in the draft, any guy can go to almost any team. Now, FanDuel amazingly has Hooker with +30000 odds (yes, 300-1) to go to the following teams: Eagles, Bengals, 49ers, Chargers, Jaguars, Browns, Panthers, Bills and Chiefs. What’s the one team on that list with a history of drafting quarterbacks with top-100 picks even though it already had established starters? The Eagles. They did it with Kevin Kolb (No. 36, 2007), Nick Foles (No. 88, 2012), Matt Barkley (No. 98, 2013) and Jalen Hurts (No. 53, 2020). If Hooker falls in the draft — and he easily could, because he’s an injured 25-year-old passer who played in a pseudo-gimmick offense — the Eagles will be a legitimate candidate to take him as long as he represents value on their board. At +30000, Hooker has a 0.33% implied probability to go to the Eagles, and I think the true probability is higher than 1% and maybe as high as 3%. As for the 49ers, Bills and Chiefs — I can imagine HCs Kyle Shanahan, Sean McDermott and Andy Reid feeling secure enough in their jobs to take and develop a quarterback who falls to them and presents value based on their boards.

Check out Matthew Freedman’s full 2023 NFL Draft Prop Bet Card >>