2023 U.S. Open: First Round Leader Picks & Predictions

by Tom Stad |
Jun 13, 2023

Corey Conners (35-1) cashed for us last week, as he finished tied atop the leaderboard Thursday evening at last week’s RBC Canadian Open. With the Canadian national championship in the rearview mirror, 68 of the top 70 in the Official World Golf Rankings will descend on The Los Angeles Country Club this week in pursuit of the coveted U.S. Open Championship. While any amateur or professional golfer with a 1.4 or better index can qualify for this week’s tournament, the world’s best will undoubtedly be at the top of the leaderboard Sunday evening.

The LACC will play host to its first major, so there’s no specific course history to pull from this week. The Par-70 layout will play to a lengthy 7,421 yards, meaning length will be at a premium. Strokes Gained Off-The-Tee will be a key stat to consider when trying to find value. As always, finding fairways and greens at the U.S. Open is critical to a player’s success, so Strokes Gained Approach will also come into consideration as well. We can never overlook players who are in fine form coming into the week and might get off to a hot start either, so let’s jump into the picks.

Check Out Our 2023 U.S. Open Betting Guide: Odds, Picks & Predictions >>

2023 U.S. Open Championship Best First-Round Leader Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Scottie Scheffler (18-1)

The #1 player in the world would be having a historic season if his putter wasn’t letting him down. Despite being ranked 148th on tour in SG: Putting, Scheffler has 12 top-10 finishes, including two wins, in 14 starts. How is that possible? The University of Texas product is ranked first in SG: Off-The-Tee, SG: Approach-To-Green, and SG: Overall. If his putter gets hot this week, he may just lap the field, reminiscent of Tiger Woods’ 2000 U.S. Open victory when he won by a mind-boggling 15 shots. Additionally, if the 26-year-old is going to be holding the hardwood on Sunday, he needs to get off to a good start. There’s no reason to think he won’t.

Tyrrell Hatton (40-1)

The fiery Englishman has three top-five and two top-15 finishes in his last five starts. It’s hard to argue anyone else in the field is in finer form. Throw in the fact that Hatton is top-20 in four of the five Strokes Gained categories, ranking him third in SG: Total, and you’ve got yourself a very legitimate threat to win the tournament. While he hasn’t gotten off to great starts this year, the fact he’s playing so well at the moment is more than enough reason to back him to end up at the top of the leaderboard after the first round.

Patrick Cantlay (30-1)

The 2021 FedEx Cup champion is my favorite pick to win the tournament this week, outside of Scottie Scheffler. The Long Beach native and UCLA graduate grew up on Southern California golf so he will feel right at home at LACC. It’s been a season of near misses for Cantlay, with four top-5 finishes and three more top-tens in 2023. What better place to break through than at the U.S. Open? Cantlay carded a 60 in the third round of this year’s Shriners Children’s Open so he’s more than capable of going low. The 31-year-old is first on tour in Total Driving, 7th in GIR% (Greens In Regulation), and 12th in Putting Average. Backing Cantlay to lead at the end of the first round is an easy choice at this number.

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