The world’s top two men’s tennis players, Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, had played nine thrilling sets at the last two Grand Slams combined (French Open and Wimbledon). However, No. 3 seed Daniil Medvedev crashed that part at the US Open, setting up a rematch of the 2021 US Open finals, where Medvedev beat Djokovic 6-4, 6-4, 6-4.
Even though we are not getting an Alcaraz-Djokovic match, this matchup is still plenty enticing. Djokovic is seeking a record-tying 24th Major title in his tenth US Open final appearance (tied for the most among men). He leads the overall head-to-head series against Medvedev 9-5, with an 8-4 edge on hardcourts and a 2-1 record in majors.
Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the 2023 Men’s US Open Final.
But Daniil Medvedev's one Grand Slam title is a win over Djokovic ?'? pic.twitter.com/IiqdfIhP4p
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 9, 2023
2023 Men’s Wimbledon Final Odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Moneyline: Medvedev (+210)/ Djokovic (-255)
- Spread: Medvedev +4.5 games (-115)/ Djokovic -4.5 games (-105)
- Total: Over 39.5 games (-105)/ Under 39.5 games (-115)
Daniil Medvedev vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction
If you needed any further vindication of how dominant Djokovic has been in his career, he has now tied Roger Federer and Steffi Graf with the most years (three) reaching all four Major Finals. Regardless, many will view Medvedev as a live underdog after handing Alcaraz just his second loss in his previous 26 Grand Slam matches and just his second loss in 18 matches at the US Open. However, just three of Alcaraz’s 12 singles titles have been on hard court, so perhaps we should not have been so surprised that Medvedev ousted him on what is clearly his best surface.
Medvedev’s 55 match wins on tour this year are second only to Alcaraz’s 58. However, the narrative that it is a negative that Djokovic is “only” 3-6 in US Open finals is preposterous, given the rarity in which any player, male or female, has reached those heights that frequently.
10 – Novak Djokovic has reached his 10th men's singles final at the US Open and has become the first male in the Open Era in the reach 10 finals at multiple Grand Slam events (Australian Open, US Open). Uncontainable. #USOpen #USOpen2023 | @usopen @atptour pic.twitter.com/qk4os5hTTm
— OptaAce (@OptaAce) September 8, 2023
The backdrop was much different at the 2021 US Open when Medvedev beat Djokovic in straight sets, as Djokovic was perhaps feeling the pressure of securing the calendar Grand Slam (winning all four majors in a single year) and had uncharacteristically lost the first set in four consecutive matches leading up to that. Djokovic spent more than 5 1/2 hours longer on court than Medvedev, who had dropped only one set on his path to the final.
Entering this match, Medvedev has lost just three sets in total in this US Open run and just one set in his last two matches combined. However, during his straight-set quarterfinal win over Andrey Rublev, he commented that “someone is going to die” in the blazing heat and humidity, and his four-set semifinal victory over Alcaraz was an absolute war. Alcaraz’s service game at 2-3 in the second set took 13 minutes alone, and Medvedev’s last service game to close out the match had five deuces, and he had to save three break points with the crowd clearly on the Spaniard’s side begging for more tennis.
Djokovic is an outstanding strategist, and his straight-set victory over world pre-tournament No. 47 Ben Shelton involved much less effort. Thus, Djokovic will likely utilize his rest advantage against Medvedev and get involved with longer, more punishing rallies from the baseline. Alcaraz did not do this in the semifinals, instead coming to net much more frequently than usual (he won 54 of 70 net points). That played into Medvedev’s hands and helped him conserve energy, though Alcaraz did exhaust him on multiple occasions with his crafty drop shots.
The longer this match goes on, the more likely it is that Djokovic will win the third or fourth set decisively. It only takes one break of serve to win a set 6-3, and Medvedev played with fire, saving eight of nine break points against Alcaraz. Even if some of the earlier sets are tighter, Djokovic has won 16 of his last 17 tiebreaks at majors, which is why we are hedging that Djokovic will win this match in either three or four sets and laying the -1.5 sets on a different prop.
Picks: Djokovic -4.5 games (-105 on DraftKings) and Djokovic -1.5 sets (-135 on DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01