This year’s US Open marks the ninth straight without a repeat women’s champion, as Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka vie for their maiden US Open titles. That nine-year streak is the second-longest in US Open history, only behind the 11-year span from 1989-99. We are also bound to have another young Grand Slam winner, as either Gauff or Sabalenka will become the 16th consecutive Women’s Grand Slam winner aged 26 or younger, the longest such streak since the 26 straight winners that young between Wimbledon in 1999 and the US Open in 2005.
Gauff has made all sorts of history during this impressive US Open run. She is the first American teen to advance to the US Open final since Williams in 2001, and at age 19, she is the youngest American teen to reach the final since Serena did it at age 17 in 1999. And having reached the French Open final in 2022, Gauff is the youngest two-time women’s Major Finalist since Maria Sharapova in 2006.
Win or lose, Sabalenka will be the new world No. 1 on Monday but would love to pay that off by improving to 2-0 in Grand Slam finals after winning her first major final match at this year’s Australian Open. This year’s US Open semifinal appearance was her third straight and fifth consecutive major semifinal overall (and seventh of the previous nine). Sabalenka improved to 2-5 in major semifinals with a three-set victory (0-6, 7-6, 7-6) over American Madison Keys.
Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the 2023 Women’s US Open finals.
Coco Gauff will take on Aryna Sabalenka in the US Open Women's Final
This is the best possible Final, Coco is going for her first Grand Slam, while Sabalenka is going for her 2nd. They've been the 2 best players this tournament, they will face off for the trophy. pic.twitter.com/6zy9YiID4U
— Tennis Updates (@TennisUpdates25) September 8, 2023
2023 Women’s Wimbledon Finals Odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Moneyline: Gauff (+110)/ Sabalenka (-130)
- Spread: Gauff +0.5 games (-105)/ Sabalenka -0.5 games (-115)
- Total: Over 22.5 games (+100)/ Under 22.5 games (-125)
Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka Prediction
There are many reasons to like Gauff heading into this match, starting with the obvious that this will feel like a road match for Sabalenka playing on American soil. Gauff has turned things around tremendously after her surprising first-round exit at Wimbledon, winning 17 of her last 18 matches, with seven of those wins coming against top 20 opponents. The 11-match winning streak is the longest of her career and has paid off in two hardcourt titles, the most prestigious of her career.
However, if anyone has the mental fortitude, let alone the game, to go into enemy territory and defeat a player as talented as Gauff, it is Sabalenka. Sabalenka was down 0-6, 3-5 (0-15) against Madison Keys and not only needed to hold serve, but break Keys to avoid another disappointing semifinal result. Keys entered the match having held 24 of her previous 25 service games, so breaking her under, especially under those circumstances, was no easy task.
If you want an insane statistic that supports Sabalenka, she has gone 60 consecutive Grand Slam main draw matches without losing in straight sets.
Karolina Muchova provided a blueprint for attacking Gauff in her semifinal match. Before getting down 1-5 in the first set, Muchova hit 40% of her shots to Gauff’s forehand side and 27% to her backhand. Between 5-1 and the delay for the protesters, Muchova hit 58% of her shots to Gauff’s forehand and 18% to her backhand, knowing that Gauff’s forehand can be wobbly. Look for Sabalenka to take advantage of that and for her power to be too much for Gauff, just as it was at Indian Wells this year when Sabalenka cruised to an easy 6-4, 6-0 victory.
Sabalenka is an impressive 21-5 at the US Open and 13-0 in hardcourt matches at majors this year. Thus, a wager on Gauff would merely be because she has the homecourt advantage and the crowd behind her, but we expect Sabalenka to push through that and defeat a second straight American en route to the title.
3 – With victory over Madison Keys, Aryna Sabalenka is only the third player in the Open Era to win a women's singles SF at a Grand Slam after losing the first set 6-0, after Steffi Graf (RG 1992) and Ana Ivanovic (AO 2008). Grit.#USOpen #USOpen2023 | @usopen @WTA @WTA_Insider pic.twitter.com/f1qxjTUN8i
— OptaAce (@OptaAce) September 8, 2023
Pick: Sabalenka ML (-130 on DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01