2024 BMW Championship: Odds, Picks & Predictions

It was a really strong showing last week from a couple of our guys. For a fleeting moment, victory was within reach for Viktor Hovland at +3500. He missed a nine-foot birdie putt on the 72nd hole to take the outright lead at the time, while Hideki Matsuyama circled the wagons after a mini-collapse to finish birdie-birdie and take home the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Hovland tied for second, cashing our top-five bet at +550. Resurgent Wyndham Clark finished in a tie for seventh for a +400 top-10 payout. What could have been…

The BMW Championship is hosted in different places each season, with the 2024 version returning to the beautiful Rocky Mountains. Only the top 50 in the FedEx Cup playoff standings advanced from last week for another no-cut romp through Castle Pines Golf Club in Castle Rock, Colorado. A mere 30 golfers will qualify for next week’s Tour Championship at East Lake Country Club in Atlanta, Georgia. The dwindling field of competitors requires a concise bet slip.

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2024 BMW Championship: Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Castle Pines is a monster-sized golf course, stretching to a PGA Tour record 8,130 yards. The par-72 track sits at more than 6,500 feet above sea level, meaning the adjusted yardage is approximately a Tour-average 7,300 yards. The track is no pushover, with narrow fairways lined with pines and dense rough. The bent-poa greens are small and tricky, while also reportedly running firm and fast. Distance off the tee is not a huge advantage, but rather distance control on approach with some arithmetic needed to sew up a solid yardage book. Treacherous hazards are pocking the entire course, so scrambling around wayward shots will be key. In a field as strong as this one, I am keying in on the golfers who are in the best current form with irons and putters. With an oxygen tank and a pocket full of trail mix, let’s tee off.

Rory McIlroy

Nobody bombs it like Rory McIlroy and there is some advantage to hitting nukes at altitude. His unique combination of distance and accuracy off the tee bodes well for hitting shorter clubs on approach and racking up the birdie opportunities. To get double-digit odds on someone like McIlroy is stealing, especially when we saw just how limited Scottie Scheffler was at reading greens and making putts on the speedy greens in Memphis. Rory might run away with this one.

Picks: Outright +1200 [1u]; Top-5 +220 [1u]

Viktor Hovland

We can’t put much stock in Viktor Hovland as the defending champion of the BMW because it was at Olympia Fields last year. We can, however, feel all warm and fuzzy with how incredible Viktor looked last week in a close shave with glory. He was in from tee to green and was draining putts from all over the property. Stay hot, you Norwegian stallion. We plan on returning to the window come Sunday.

Picks: Outright +1800 [1u]; Top-5 +300 [1u]

Wyndham Clark

The narrative around Wyndham Clark this week is causing his number to shrink. The Colorado native is perhaps the most adept at mountain golf, while also running pure in the last two events. Clark is a bomber of McIlroy’s caliber and one of the best scorers on the planet when he finds the fairway. Clark has always sported a world-class short game, so his floor performance at home in front of his people might be top-10. I’m buying into all the hype.

Picks: Outright +2500 [1u]; Top-10 +180 [1u]

Will Zalatoris

An even par round on Sunday muted the fanfare around what was a highly successful showing in Memphis for Will Zalatoris. The Texas native finished in a tie for 12th to earn his spot in this week’s field, thanks to some masterful iron play and clutch putting on those slippery Bermuda greens at TPC Southwind. Willy Z’s ball-striking travels like a kindergartener at the park pickup game, so don’t be shocked if his current form has him in contention at Castle Pines. The line is certainly soft enough to spread on a piece of toast.

Picks: Outright +6000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +360 [0.5u]

Deep Shot: Max Homa

How in the world did Max Homa even qualify for the BMW Championship? It has been a season to forget for our social media darling, but I remember the good times. One comp course for Castle Pines is Augusta National since designer Jack Nicklaus envisioned it for future majors in the mountains. Homa finished third at this year’s Masters. He might have come in dead last a week ago, but at +11000 to win outright, I’m having a really hard time dismissing Homa altogether. Even his top-10 line is set at a ridiculous +550. Call me crazy, but I don’t think Homa goes quietly into his offseason.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: