2025 Belmont Stakes Odds, Picks & Predictions

The 2025 Belmont Stakes is the 157th running of the third and final installment of the Triple Crown of horse racing. The race should begin at approximately 7:04 p.m. ET from Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., and it can be viewed on FOX.

The oldest of the Triple Crown events is back at Saratoga for the second consecutive year, as construction and renovations continue at Belmont Park. We’ll have a distance of 1 1/4 miles, or 2.0 kilometers, which is slightly shorter than the usual 1 1/2 miles, or 2.4 kilometers, at Belmont. The shorter distance is due to the smaller size of Saratoga’s dirt surface.

The Kentucky Derby winner, Sovereignty, elected to skip the Preakness Stakes in Baltimore, but he is back for the Belmont. Preakness victor Journalism is also in the star-studded field, so while we won’t have a Triple Crown winner this season, it should be a very competitive race.

One last thing, as we have rain in the forecast. There are light showers forecasted from noon ET through 3 p.m. ET, before we have a 60% or greater chance of thunderstorms through 7 p.m. ET. We should see a very muddy track. We’ll highlight three of our best bets, picks, and predictions for Saturday’s Triple Crown race.

How to Bet on Horse Racing>>

2025 Belmont Stakes Best Bets: Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Journalism (8/5)

If you want to roll with the chalk, there is nothing wrong with backing Journalism. The horse has four victories in the 2025 season, including the win at the Preakness Stakes. Having a Triple Crown win is huge, but Journalism will now need to contend with Sovereignty, after the latter opted out of the Preakness.

The Curlin-sired horse, ridden by Umberto Rispoli, is trained by Michael McCarthy. Rispoli had never won a Triple Crown race prior to the Preakness, while McCarthy had just one TC win. He helped Rombauer to the winner’s circle at the 2021 Preakness Stakes, and then again this season.

Journalism goes off from the No. 7 post. That particular position has 14 wins at the Belmont Stakes, the fourth-most in the race, good for an 11% success rate.

Baeza (4/1)

If either Journalism or Sovereignty isn’t your cup of tea, and you’re looking for longer odds, Baeza is on the rise. He’ll go off from the No. 6 gate, which is exactly where Dornoch won from in 2024 last season in the 2024 Belmont Race at Saratoga Race Course.

There is more to it than just post position from last season, though. Baeza, ridden by jockey Flavien Prat, with trainer John Shirrefs, posted a third-place finish at the Kentucky Derby. Baeza finished second at the Santa Anita Derby (Grade I) back on April 5. In four starts, Baeza has a first-place finish, two second-place runs and a third-place finish, so Baeza will certainly be in contention. It remains to be seen if a muddy track is good for Baeza or not, but Prat has plenty of Triple Crown experience, although he never has won at the Belmont Stakes.

Hill Road (10/1)

If you’re looking for a bit of a long-shot bet, Hill Road is a strong play for the chance to multiply up by 10 times. The Chad Brown-trained horse goes off from the No. 1 post, which has been the spot for the most Belmont victories with 24 wins, or a 19% success rate. However, the No. 1 post hasn’t produced a Belmont winner since Justify took home the carnations as a heavy favorite in 2018. That’s the only win from the inside post at Belmont since 2003 when Empire Maker won it all.

Hill Road posted a victory May 10 in the Peter Pan Stakes (Grade 3) at the Belmont At The Big A track, posting an Equibase score of 99. Prior to that, Hill Road was solid third at the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, also a Grade 3 race. In the most recent Grade I race at Del Mar, Hill Road was third at the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race on Nov. 1, 2024.

We didn’t get a chance to see Hill Road at the Wood Memorial, Kentucky Derby or Preakness due to a fever, but the Chad Brown horse, sired by Quality Road, is available and ready to make some noise.