It's officially February, which means we are one month away from the greatest month of all - March. It's time to get serious about analyzing team resumes and understanding where they are expected to land come Selection Sunday.
This article provides a holistic view of the NCAA College Basketball landscape and identifies where the value is before the market moves. With March Madness closing in, I'll be updating this article weakly with power rankings, what I've seen in the week and fake brackets. There's a lot to get into, so let's jump right into takeaways as we enter February play.
- NCAA College Basketball Odds
- NCAA College Basketball Player Props
- NCAA College Basketball Picks & Predictions
- NCAA College Basketball Matchups
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
2025 NCAA Men’s Tournament Bracketology Predictions
Who Can Contend for a Title?
The most consistent question across the entire college basketball season is who can really contend for an NCAA title? Let me present you my Tier 1 list for your consideration:
- Auburn
- Duke
- Florida
- Iowa State
That's it. It's short, I know, but we're talking about the best of the best here. Auburn and Duke I feel are pretty self-explanatory, they boast the two best players in the league - in what order is up to you - and have the resume, talent and regimen to make a deep run.
Iowa State has been a powerhouse up until their last couple of games. Not only is their defense elite but their offense has come through in a whole new way under T.J. Otzelberger. Meanwhile, Florida has the backcourt play and offensive rebounding prowess that can get them through tough games and off nights where I believe in their ability to cut down the nets in early April.
The next tier is Houston, Tennessee and Alabama as the "prove it" tier where they get all the hype but I won't believe it until I see it. Texas Tech is quickly creeping up, I may add, as well. Otherwise, there are too many holes and worries to poke in any other team I'd consider to make a deep tournament run. In terms of odds, it’s Duke and Auburn, and then everyone else. I wholeheartedly agree with that.
Recency Bias Winners
While the committee takes a holistic approach when determining bracket seeding, it's important to note how teams evolve and change as the season progresses. Looking at random time intervals to see who's playing best and when is always fun. Looking at play since the calendar turned over to the New Year, a clear winner is Missouri. They've gone 6-2 with their only two losses on the road to Auburn and Texas while beating Vanderbilt, Florida, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Mississippi State.
Mind you, they beat Mississippi State and the Gators on the road. Dennis Gates has brought the team together for a squad that can light it up any night and will be quite battle-tested come March. They rank fifth in Bart Torvik's efficiency metrics since January 1st and second since January 14th. They are currently +1600 on Bet MGM to make the Final Four.
Another team that must get its accolades is Texas Tech. They are already highly rated but continue improving and are a sharp 8-1 in 2025 coming off an outstanding win over Houston on the road. Otherwise, watch out for Louisville, Creighton and Saint Mary's - each vastly improved in the last 30 days.
2025 NCAA Men’s Tournament Best Bets
What better time than now to look at some futures to bet as teams’ identities are lining up and the markets are still trying to align with priors versus what the data has shown. Here is one futures bet to add to your portfolio.
Texas Tech to Make the Final Four (+900 at BetMGM)
With the number of powerhouses in the Big 12 and big-name brands, I don't think the Red Raiders are getting enough love. A loss early in the season to Saint Joseph's tarnished them a bit but they've seriously improved since then.
Three road wins against Kansas State, Cincinnati and Houston by a combined 15 points are impressive on their own. They have a relatively friendly rest-of-season schedule that should position them favorably for the tournament.
Bracketology
Welcome to the first bracket that features tenable matchups. I don't know about y'all, but I love the hypotheticals brackets provide us. With over a month of play left, there are still bound to be big changes with some slumps and hot streaks on the horizon.
Regardless, here's what I imagine the bracket to be if March Madness started today.
The Seeding
No. 1 Seeds
- Auburn
- Duke
- Alabama
- Florida
No. 2 Seeds
- Iowa State
- Tennessee
- Houston
- Purdue
No. 3 Seeds
- Marquette
- Kansas
- Michigan State
- Kentucky
No. 4 Seeds
- Texas Tech
- Mississippi State
- Wisconsin
- Texas A&M
No. 5 Seeds
- St. John's
- Ole Miss
- Michigan
- Missouri
No. 6 Seeds
- Illinois
- Maryland
- Louisville
- Arizona
No. 7 Seeds
- Gonzaga
- Saint Mary’s
- Oregon
- UCLA
No. 8 Seeds
- Clemson
- UConn
- Baylor
- Memphis
No. 9 Seeds
- Creighton
- Texas
- Oklahoma
- VCU
No. 10 Seeds
- West Virginia
- Pittsburgh
- Ohio State
- New Mexico
No. 11 Seeds
- North Carolina
- Georgia
- Utah State*
- Vanderbilt*
- San Diego State*
- BYU*
No. 12 Seeds
- Drake
- UC Irvine
- Arkansas State
- McNeese State
No. 13 Seeds
- Liberty
- Yale
- Samford
- High Point
No. 14 Seeds
- Utah Valley
- Akron
- Lipscomb
- Northern Colorado
No. 15 Seeds
- Cleveland State
- Towson
- Bryant
- Norfolk State
No. 16 Seeds
- Central Connecticut State
- Marist
- Nebraska-Omaha*
- Southern*
- Morehead State*
- American*
*Play-in games
First Four Out
- Xavier
- Wake Forest
- Nebraska
- UCF
Next Four Out
- Arizona State
- Indiana
- Arkansas
- SMU
The Bracket
Some teams may be moved around or in weird regions with the bracketing rules, but here's your official first look at an NCAA Tournament bracket.
Midwest Region (Indianapolis)
1 Florida
16 Nebraska-Omaha*/Southern*
8 Memphis
9 VCU
5 Missouri
12 McNeese State
4 Wisconsin
13 High Point
6 Maryland
11 Vanderbilt*/San Diego State*
3 Kentucky
14 Northern Colorado
7 Saint Mary’s
10 Ohio State
2 Purdue
15 Norfolk State
West (San Francisco)
1 Alabama
16 Morehead State*/American*
8 Baylor
9 Oklahoma
5 Michigan
12 Arkansas State
4 Mississippi State
13 Samford
6 Ole Miss
11 North Carolina
3 Kansas
14 Lipscomb
7 UCLA
10 New Mexico
2 Houston
15 Bryant
East (Newark)
1 Duke
16 Marist
8 Creighton
9 Texas
5 St. John’s
12 UC Irvine
4 Texas Tech
13 Yale
6 Louisville
11 Utah State*/BYU*
3 Michigan State
14 Akron
7 Gonzaga
10 Pittsburgh
2 Iowa State
15 Cleveland State
South (Atlanta)
1 Auburn
16 Central Connecticut State
8 Clemson
9 UConn
5 Arizona
12 Drake
4 Texas A&M
13 Liberty
6 Illinois
11 Georgia
3 Marquette
14 Utah Valley
7 Oregon
10 West Virginia
2 Tennessee
15 Towson
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.