The PGA Tour season all comes down to the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia this week. The top 30 golfers in the FedExCup Rankings qualified for this third and final playoff event, which will be played at a lengthy par 70 course in hot and humid conditions.
There is no cut line enforced, with a massive $10 million payout at stake for the FedExCup champion. Unlike previous editions of the TOUR Championship, the starting strokes format is now eliminated. This means every golfer in the field starts at even par.
Scottie Scheffler just logged his fifth win of the season with an epic 80-foot chip out of the rough to win the BMW Championship over Robert MacIntyre on Sunday. The World No. 1 golfer also won the FedExCup last year, albeit with a massive advantage in the starting strokes format. Now, Scheffler will compete against the other 29 golfers in this field to attempt to become the first golfer to win back-to-back FedExCup titles.
Last week, my BMW Championship Picks & Predictions: Best PGA Bets settled a perfect 3-0. Let’s try to run it back and close out the PGA Tour season on a heater at East Lake this week. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and PGA Tour analysis during the second FedExCup Playoff event.
2025 TOUR Championship: Best Bets
These plays are 1 unit, or 1% of your betting bankroll. Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Round 1 – 18 Hole Matchup – Sungjae Im vs. Akshay Bhatia
Akshay Bhatia’s ace on a par 3 at the BMW Championship punched his ticket to the TOUR Championship this week. The 23-year-old collected four top 10 finishes in 2025, although it was a down year based on his performances in 2024.
Sungjae Im has been trending downward for awhile now. The South Korean ranks 166th SG: Approach and 163rd proximity this season. Bhatia is 10th SG: Approach and 31st SG: Putting, while also sitting 14th for proximity.
Ranked 13th in birdie average, Bhatia should have no issue logging a lower score than Im in Round 1 at East Lake on Thursday. Back Bhatia as the favorite in this Round 1 matchup prop at -130.
Pick: Akshay Bhatia (-130)
Round 1 – 18 Hole Matchup – Viktor Hovland vs. Cameron Young
Cameron Young and Viktor Hovland both have an outright win on the PGA Tour in 2025. Hovland was the 2023 FedExCup champion, while Young ended a multi-year streak of runner-up finishes without a victory, sealing his maiden win with a dominant performance at the Wyndham Championship a few weeks ago.
Both golfers are bombers off-the-tee and Hovland is second on the PGA Tour in SG: Approach. East Lake fits their game, however, I think the wrong golfer is favored to win this Round 1 matchup.
Young sits seventh SG: Putting and 19th driving distance. Hovland is 107th SG: Putting and 82nd driving distance, while ranked 99th on par 4s. Young is 59th on par 4s and averages over 4.2 birdies per round, while sitting top-10 in numerous putting metrics.
I’ll back Young as a marginal underdog, especially since his form has been trending upward in August, posting an outright win, followed by a fifth-place finish and a solo 11th place finish at the BMW Championship this past week.
Pick: Cameron Young (-110)
Ben Griffin Round Score – Round 1
Let’s shift to the Round 1 Score betting market and bet on Ben Griffin to finish -1-under-par or lower on Thursday. It’s his East Lake debut but it shouldn’t phase the ball-striker too much, considering he’s ranked eighth total strokes gained, including top 30 on approach and putting.
Griffin is 15th scoring average and 23rd on par 4s. He’s posted a T12 finish in three straight events and overcame a bad start at Caves Valley on Sunday to finish under par. I expect a similar outing in Atlanta, where Griffin can lean on his accuracy and short game to score 1-under-par or better in the opening round.
Pick: Under 69.5 (-130)