Well, folks, we made it. Selection Sunday is here, the best day of the year. There is no greater feeling than when the bracket is announced and you can finally get to agonizing about who your 12-5 upset will be. It really is March. If you're just joining us, welcome. You may have missed a lot, but don't worry. I'll be here to catch you up.
This article provides a holistic view of the Men’s NCAA College Basketball landscape and identifies some value before the market moves. In this article, I’ll provide my final bracket predictions, as well as what to expect when it does drop. There's a lot to get to, so let's jump right into it.
- NCAA College Basketball Odds
- NCAA College Basketball Player Props
- NCAA College Basketball Picks & Predictions
- NCAA College Basketball Matchups
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
2026 NCAA Men’s Tournament Bracketology Predictions
The State of Auto-Bids
As of now, 26 different teams have punched their ticket into the tournament. By conference, they are:
America East: UMBC
ACC: Duke
ASUN: Queens
Big 12: Arizona
Big East: St. John’s
Big Sky: Idaho
Big South: High Point
Big West: Hawai’i
CAA: Hofstra
CUSA: Kennesaw State
Horizon League: Wright State
MAAC: Siena
MAC: Akron
MEAC: Howard
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Mountain West: Utah State
Northeast: Long Island
Ohio Valley: Tennessee State
Patriot League: Lehigh
SoCon: Furman
Southland: McNeese
Summit League: North Dakota State
Sun Belt: Troy
WAC: California Baptist
WCC: Gonzaga
And here are the auto-bids left to be claim among today’s games, along with their potential impact.
Pennsylvania vs. Yale (IVY) – 11:00 AM ET – ESPN2
- Yale is a heavy favorite here and should slot into a 12-seed with a win. There’s a chance the committee has saved that slot, assuming a Yale victory, and if Penn can upset the Bulldogs they slide into a 12 as well. More reasonably, they rank as a 13-seed.
Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas (SEC) – 12:00 PM ET – ESPN
- Well it’s the matchup we all expected, right? Vanderbilt should lock up a four-seed with this win, and there’s a chance the two squads are battling out for the final top-16 spot on the bracket. At the very least, neither will fall past the 5-seed line.
Dayton vs. VCU (A10) – 12:00 PM ET – CBS
- Our first chance at a bid thief. VCU is square on the bubble and this game could be the difference between them going to Dayton for a First Four game or not. The Rams might still be in with a loss but Dayton needs to win as they would not be in the field as an at-large.
Wichita State vs. South Florida – 2:15 PM ET – ESPN
- Another chance at a bid thief! South Florida is another team square on the bubble. While they are favorites here, I’d be a little surprised if they got in as an at-large. Wichita would likely be a 12-seed if they can upset the Bulls.
Purdue vs. Michigan – 2:30 PM ET – CBS
- Our final game leading up to Selection Sunday likely won’t impact the bracket seeding much, it rarely does. Purdue should be locked into a three-seed while Michigan is a clear one. If the Boilermakers dominate there’s a very off chance they leap Michigan State for the final two-seed, however unlikely. It will be interesting to see how Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue fall in the pecking order at least.
The State of At-Larges
Many teams have locked up their bid into the tournament outside of the auto-bids. Let's go conference by conference to see where the teams currently sit.
ACC
- Locks: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Miami, Clemson
- Should Be In: North Carolina State
- Bubble: SMU
Big Ten
- Locks: Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA, Iowa, Ohio State
- Bubble: None
Big East
- Locks: UConn, St. John’s, Villanova
- Bubble: None
Big 12
- Locks: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, TCU
- Should Be In: UCF
- Bubble: None
SEC
- Locks: Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia
- Should Be In: Missouri, Texas A&M
- Bubble: Texas, Oklahoma
All Other Conferences
- Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Utah State, Miami (Ohio)
- Bubble: VCU, Santa Clara, San Diego State
The bubble has tightened the closer we get to Selection Sunday. I’ve dropped Stanford and Indiana out of bubble contention with Akron coming in as a bid thief and it’s tough to give them serious consideration with the season they’ve had. If Wichita State and Dayton both win then the bubble becomes a lot more interesting where some of those “should be in” teams end up playing in the First Four.
Also no, again, I did not forget Auburn. They are 17-16 and I don’t care about strength of schedule, a 17-16 regular season record is not good enough to get in as an at-large.
Also yes, Miami (OH) is a lock after finishing the regular season undefeated. Right now, bracket matrix has them as an play-in 11, I have them as a 10, but there’s definitely a reality where they end up being higher than expected and we’ve been underrating them all year.
The Storylines
With the bracket being revealed tonight, here’s what to focus on this week:
We’re Number One: Coming down the stretch, I thought we were going to have a dance of death for the final one seed. Duke, Michigan, and Arizona have all but locked up the one seed. And now it’s between UConn and Florida. With the Huskies loss to Marquette, and St. John’s in the final, I think the Gators have it.I know Florida got embarassed by Vanderbilt, but they have a better resume and are a better team. I’d be surprised if the champion didn’t come from the grouping of Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and Florida.
Bubble Talk: During this time of year, the bubble is like the weather on the news, always going to be a talking point. The bubble this year is…bad. One of the worst in the history of the modern day bubble actually. TCU is the most dangerous potential double-digit seed by far. Santa Clara has NBA talent and can make it to the second weekend, along with South Florida. Ohio State with Bruce Thornton I’ll throw in the mix too as a sleeper but beyond that, I don’t see many bubble teams capable of making it to the second weekend.
Everbody Gets an Injury!: I don’t feel like there’s been a tournament in recent history that has so many high profile players out for their team: J.T. Toppin, Caleb Wilson, and Richie Saunders are all tournament-changing players that really limit their respective teams’ ceilings. And it’s only gotten worse since last week when I brought up the same point! Clemson, potentially UCLA, Louisville, and other squads all might be without some of their highest impact players. It will be interesting to see how the committee changes seeding for Texas Tech, UNC, and BYU, and others given those injuries. Not to mention if Darryn Peterson is all-in, if Nolan Winter is fully healthy with Wisconsin, or the other handful of banged up players.
The Bracket & Seeding
Here it is, my final bracket prediction. I always say not to fall prey to recency bias but it’s very difficult when you’re making razor thin decisions between teams. Here goes nothing.
The Seeding
No. 1 Seeds
- Duke
- Michigan
- Arizona
- Florida
No. 2 Seeds
- UConn
- Houston
- Iowa State
- Michigan State
No. 3 Seeds
- Illinois
- Nebraska
- Purdue
- Gonzaga
No. 4 Seeds
- Virginia
- Alabama
- Vanderbilt
- Kansas
No. 5 Seeds
- Arkansas
- Texas Tech
- Wisconsin
- St. John’s
No. 6 Seeds
- North Carolina
- Tennessee
- Louisville
- Kentucky
No. 7 Seeds
- St. Mary’s (CA)
- Georgia
- Miami (FL)
- BYU
No. 8 Seeds
- Villanova
- Clemson
- Utah State
- UCLA
No. 9 Seeds
- Saint Louis
- Iowa
- North Carolina State
- TCU
No. 10 Seeds
- UCF
- Ohio State
- Miami (OH)
- Texas A&M
No. 11 Seeds
- Missouri*
- Texas*
- SMU*
- Santa Clara*
- VCU
- South Florida
No. 12 Seeds
- Akron
- Yale
- McNeese
- High Point
No. 13 Seeds
- Hawaii
- Northern Iowa
- Hofstra
- California Baptist
No. 14 Seeds
- Kennesaw State
- North Dakota State
- Furman
- Troy
No. 15 Seeds
- Siena
- Tennessee State
- Idaho
- Wright State
No. 16 Seeds
- UMBC
- Queens
- Long Island*
- Howard*
- Lehigh*
- Prairie View A&M*
*Play-in games
First Four Out
- San Diego State
- Stanford
- Oklahoma
- New Mexico
Next Four Out
- Seton Hall
- Auburn
- Cincinnati
- Virginia Tech
The Bracket
The biggest problem I face right now is solving how much the injuries impact seeding. As mentioned before, it will obviously impact the performance of the team but how much it will impact the seeding is left for question.
Otherwise, you may see not much has changed in my bracket. This time of year, a lot of bracketologists get trigger-happy, overweighing these March games. However, the committee looks at the entire season and sometimes it feels like brackets were locked up days in advance. For matchup ruling, I did have to move some team’s around.
East Region
- 1 Duke vs. 16 UMBC
- 8 Villanova vs. 9 Iowa
- 5 Texas Tech vs. 12 Akron
- 4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 Northern Iowa
- 6 North Carolina vs. 11 VCU
- 3 Nebraska vs. 14 Kennesaw State
- 7 Kentucky vs. 10 Ohio State
- 2 Michigan State vs. 15 Siena
West Region
- 1 Michigan vs. 16 Queens
- 8 Clemson vs. 9 Saint Louis
- 5 Wisconsin vs. 12 Yale
- 4 Alabama vs. 13 Hawaii
- 6 Tennessee vs. 11 South Florida
- 3 Gonzaga vs. 14 North Dakota State
- 7 Georgia vs. 10 UCF
- 2 Iowa State vs. 15 Tennessee State
South Region
- 1 Arizona vs. 16 Long Island/Howard
- 8 Utah State vs. 9 NC State
- 5 Arkansas vs. 12 McNeese
- 4 Virginia vs. 13 Hofstra
- 6 Louisville vs. 11 Santa Clara/Texas
- 3 Purdue vs. 14 Furman
- 7 BYU vs. 10 Miami (OH)
- 2 Illinois vs. 15 Idaho
Midwest Region
- 1 Florida vs. 16. Lehigh/Prairie View A&M
- 8 UCLA vs. 9. TCU
- 5 St. John’s vs. 12. High Point
- 4 Kansas vs. 13. California Baptist
- 6 St. Mary’s vs. 11. Missouri/SMU
- 3 Illinois vs. 14. Troy
- 7 Miami (FL) 10. Texas A&M
- 2 UConn vs. 15. Wright State
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.