The 2026 U.S. Open returns to Shinnecock Hills Golf Club this week, marking the third major of the PGA Tour calendar. J.J. Spaun is the defending champion, although his improbable victory came at rain-soaked Oakmont Country Club.
Brooks Koepka (+4500) is back to attempt to win his third U.S. Open title, posting a one-stroke victory at Shinnecock the last time it hosted in 2018. Other betting favorites in this field include World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+550), Rory McIlroy (+1200), Jon Rahm (+1500), Xander Schauffele (+1600), along with Englishmen Matt Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood at +1800 odds.
Shinnecock is a par 70 with massive greens, featuring undulations in its fairways and greens, while punishing fescue rough swallows up errant shots. Wind is the primary defense, along with 150+ bunkers, which have been relocated due to a fairway realignment. It’s why most expect the winning scorecard to be over-par by the end of the weekend.
I’ve got a few of my favorite Top 5 and Top 10 bets to place ahead of Round 1 teeing off at the U.S. Open on Thursday morning. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free picks and PGA Tour analysis.
2026 U.S. Open Picks & Predictions: Favorite Top 5 and Top 10 Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Top 5 – Matt Fitzpatrick (+380)
I’m entrusting Matt Fitzpatrick to battle the winds and conquer the rigors of Shinnecock this week. The 2022 U.S. Open champion has not cracked the top 5 since his breakthrough win at The Country Club, although he just logged a solo runner-up at the RBC Canadian Open on Sunday.
However, Fitzpatrick has been red-hot in 2026, carding a pair of solo wins while ranked third in total strokes gained, including fourth in SG: Approach. Fitzpatrick is also ninth in total driving, including 10th in driving accuracy, while sitting in the top 20 in proximity and scrambling.
Putting is the only glaring weakness for Fitzpatrick. He should be able to succeed in tough conditions with his tee-to-green accuracy paving the way, so let’s bet a half unit (0.50) on Matt Fitzpatrick to post a Top 5 finish at +380 odds.
Top 5 – Robert MacIntyre (+1600)
Last year saw Robert MacIntyre fall just short of claiming his first major victory when J.J. Spaun sunk his 60-foot birdie putt on the final hole. The Scot’s solo runner-up finish was by far his best showing in four U.S. Open appearances.
In 2026, MacIntyre has cooled off a bit. He’s still posted three top 5 finishes this season, although MacIntyre has only one top 20 finish in his last seven events played.
Notable ranks include 13th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 13th in SG: Putting, while sitting 34th in total driving. Approach has been a sore spot, which could blow up at Shinnecock due to its demands for iron accuracy.
Ultimately, I’m willing to bet on MacIntyre to battle the winds and use his driver and putter to grind his way into a second straight top 5 finish at this major. At 16-1 odds, we only need to invest a quarter unit (0.25) to haul in four units of profit.
Top 10 – Jon Rahm (+175)
Jon Rahm has been dominating at LIV this season. The 2021 U.S. Open winner also came up just short at the PGA Championship, unable to match Aaron Rai’s torrid pace down the stretch in the final round.
Rahm boasts a 77.9 percent greens-in-regulation accuracy rate on LIV. Now, the Spaniard will look to post his third consecutive top 10 finish at the U.S. Open.
He did miss the cut at Shinnecock in 2018, but now, Rahm has strung together four straight finishes inside the top 12 since his 2021 victory at Torrey Pines South Course. Let’s bet a full unit on Rahm to post a top 10 finish at +175 odds.
Top 10 – Xander Schauffele (+185)
Xander Schauffele is undoubtedly one of the most consistent golfers when it comes to major championship golf, particularly at the U.S. Open. The Californian has carded seven top 10 finishes in his last nine attempts at the U.S. Open, including a T6 at Shinnecock back in 2018.
2026 has been a mixed bag for Schauffele so far. He’s bounced between top 10 finishes and sliding outside of the top 20 since March. Notable ranks include eighth in total strokes gained, including 14th SG: Off-the-Tee and 27th in SG: Approach.
12th in scrambling is the X-factor for me when it comes to betting on Schauffele at Shinnecock. Being able to salvage a hole when missing the green is key to success at a tough course.
Let’s plug one final unit onto Schauffele to record a top 10 finish at +185 odds.